Economist asks Is the Asian Miracle over?

6th March 1997

As previously noted in this column, the extraordinarily fast economic growth of both the Asian "tigers" and "tiger-cubs" has shown signs of slowdown and "cracks" in the pavement in the previously smooth run-up to the promise of the often over-hyped "Asia-Pacific century". The last 12 months has seen a slow down in growth rates (but still far faster than economies of the North and West), the problems of pollution and infrastructure continuing, industrial unrest and corruption at the highest level in Korea, declining exports and increasing current account deficits. Concern has been expressed in this column and elsewhere of increasing consumer over spending and fickle job markets. In Thailand we have seen the burning down of factories and an increasingly delicate economic and political situation. Both Singapore and Hong Kong saw a downturn in exports, and Dr. Mahathir in Malaysia is struggling with spiralling debts amidst generally very healthy growth and business development initiatives.

It is tempting, like the economist Krugman in his widely discussed article in Foreign Affairs, to predict the end of the rise of the East.

However, the Economist, in a recent article, has a far more optimistic and conservative view. No doubt there are problems in both the tiger and tiger cub economies of Asia, but nothing that could not be expected given the enormous growth in the past decade.

As these economies now mature as developed economies such as Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong, or advanced developing economies such as Thailand, Malaysia and Philippines, the challenge for management and organizational development to build on and exploit the earlier fast growth stage is at its most challenging.

The full text of the Economist article is available here and it is well worth a read, and comment to our discussion list.