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So here it is, for the first time as it has been so long, a whole news item devoted to the Rat's economic indices, and many thanks to all our anonymous friends who contributed.

Note: With apologies to economist friends of the forum, and dedicated to all those economists with a sense of humour...

Down, down, down, went the Sir Joh Bjelke Peterson Crane Index, our measure of economic growth based on the well known ex-Premier of Queensland's comment when asked by journalists on the level of corruption and predicted economic problems in that provincial state of Australia..

".. I don't have to listen to all those silly economists... I just have to look out my office window and count the cranes.. If the number has gone up we are growing..." (rough translation)

In Bangkok, the number of cranes have reduced around 20% according to well positioned high level office occupants in Silom, Rama 4, and Ploenchit. But many of these cranes have still to be taken down and are, for all intents and purposes, idle. Similarly, strategically loacted KL correspondents placed on the 15th level of the Capitol Hotel Bukit Bintang, Jalan Raja Laut, and Jalan Raja Chulan say in KL its around 25%, though this may be unfair as most construction is earmarked not for the central city, but for the multi-media corridor further south.. In Indonesia down Jalan Gatot Subrato Kav, and the northern reaches of Jalan Thamrin, the cranes have almost completely disappeared, save for a few idle ones.

More bad news with the Nasi Ayam index which is the average price of a hawkers serving of "Nasi Ayam" (or "chicken rice" for our English friends and "Pad Gai" for our Thai mates...). Rice is our traditional staple of course, and Chicken our most widely eaten meat, so it may well be called the staple inflation index.

In Kuala Lumpur, based on visits to the original market test locations (Lui's chicken rice stall at the end of Jalan Petaling, Chinatown, the vendor on the corner of Jalan Bukit Bintang and Cangkat Bukit Bintang, behind Menara IMC in Jalan Sultan Ismail, and the Pasar Malam at Chow Kit (third stall on the right with the tall cook with the specs held together by a band-aid)), the price has increased from last July to now an average of $2.50 Ringgit to $3.50).

Jakarta has not been spared, due to the fact that the local fowl depend on imported feed. Even Tutut Soeharto noted the increase a few months ago and suggested that if the people cant afford it, they can eat rabbit... Down near the port the price has gone from an average of 1500 Rupea to 3,000 and even 4,000 in one case. Opposite Bank Indonesia in Jalan Thamrin it is 3,500 to 4,000 depending on whether you look local or not, and in uptown Kelapa Gading its around 4,000, up from 2,000 almost a year ago. Hard times in Jakarta indeed.

Our Thai friends have no reason to look happy and well-fed. The average price there has increased from 20 Baht to 25 Baht, in some cases 30 Baht, from our test hawker centres in Washington Square (corner of Sukhumvit 22), outside the Sheraton on the river, across the river in Bangkoknoi, and opposite Hotel Asia. ..And in Bangkoknoi, they have also reduced the serving size.

So that's about a 30% decline of economic growth and a 25% increase in inflation region wide since July.

Lets see if the IMF or World Bank with all their professional economists can do better!

The Chao Phraya River Rat takes no responsibility for million dollar decisions based on the economic forecasts herein.. ..nor emotional or physical injury incurred either real or imaginary.. ....Then again, ...neither do economists...