Asia Policy expected to continue as Conservatives trounce Labor in Australia

3rd March 1996

The Conservatives in Australia (the Liberal/National coalition) recorded an emphatic victory in yesterdays general elections bringing to an end 13 years of successful Labor rule in this ex-British colony. The latter 6 years were marked as much by an increasing interest in Asia and continued sound economic management as by Prime Minister's Paul Keating's abrasive and arrogant leadership style. While the labor party's push for a republic with a home grown head of state rather than the Queen of England did divide the nation in some respects, the era began the establishment of a more independent Australia, increasingly seeing themselves (admittedly for pragmatic economic reasons rather than any other) as part of Asia rather than as part of Europe.

In fact, the conservatives should already have been in power, save for a bungled election campaign 3 years ago in which they displayed inexplicable political naivety by showing their poker hand before placing their bets. By showing off their political idealism by releasing details, under constant and clever challenging by Paul Keating, of a new tax on spending and various reforms of the labor market, the conservatives lost a theoretically unloseable election following an Australian economy ravaged by the world wide recession and showing mixed indications of picking up. Hopefully the Conservatives have become more pragmatic as similar posturing in Asia will leave Australia with the same losing hand.

The Asian press today reported the change of government with polite indifference, in the same manner as the Malaysians welcomed Paul Keating's Kuala Lumpur visit 6 weeks ago. Asian countries, admittedly have far more on their minds this weekend with the Asia-Europe meeting in Bangkok. Australia is a minnow in the Asian scene, knocking at the back door while Asia talks to the US at the front door and invites in European leaders. What is very obvious here is that Australia has to make the offers and take the initiative and play the Asian game which means a patient and slow buildup of credibility in the region. The tigers and tiger cubs of Asia have very long memories, (they have to because the Chinese civilisation, on which most of Asia's new economic strength is steeped in, is the oldest in the world), and they well remember that Australia spurned Asia when it was down and now wants to join the party when things are good. Most newspapers reported that little change in policy was expected, citing the election advertisements and Australian political commentator's view that the election was fought on leadership personalities rather than policies. The Liberal/National advertisements emphasised no change on policies but that a quiet honest family man may be a better leader than Keating, who in private life, is very much the same, but in public life is perceived as a ferocious bull terrier political opponent and a bullying arrogant leader.

The Conservatives come from behind on Asia policy, with a record of mouthing platitudes and little action in Asia, the knowledge in Asia that it was Labor that initiated the drive into Asia, right back to Gough Whitlam's visit to China 20 years ago and not the conservatives, and the racial statements often attributed to Australian conservatives. (Of course, racial discrimination is an accepted part of life in Asia, but the political masters know that Westerners are very sensitive about being accused of racism, so it is used to good negotiating effect).

What most published reports, both Asian and Australian, do not mention is that the Australian conservatives have learnt the rules of poker since the election disaster of 1993, and all the "tricks" are still up their sleeves. Expect a realignment of Asian policy towards East Asia, (Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan,) and away from South East Asia, tougher immigration policies, higher fees for Asian tertiary students, and for positive Asian policy to fall victim during the monarchist/republican debate.

Not that many in Asia will care. John Howard and his new Foreign Minister could do well to study the Bing Fa and reorganise their Fung Shui. ...And remember you read it here first!