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The world has become used to seeing grown men weep courtesy of FIFA World Cup Football matches beamed into homes, offices, bars and hotels worldwide. But for all the theatrics and emotionalism of the South Korean victory over Spain broadcast just prior, even as a curtain raiser it could not match Mahathir's concluding address to this year's annual UMNO Assembly also beamed live to Malaysian homes. UMNO (United Malays National Organization) is the broad based Malay-Muslim political party in Malaysia, dominant political force in Malaysia, and lead partner in the Malaysian National Front of political parties that has governed Malaysia for decades. Due to the influence of UMNO on politics and even the national psyche both historically and presently, it's Annual Assembly is one of the major annual events in Malaysia. Malays from around the country descend on the venue, lately the Putra World Trade Center adjoining the UMNO offices and the UMNO owned Pan Pacific hotel, and the surrounds and foyers become festooned with Malay ladies in colourful national dress selling Malay clothing, snacks, books and, at least at the one I attended several years back, curious bottles of potions with unknown effects unless you can read Malay, - strictly for sale to women over 18 only. The celebrity players in the Annual Assembly event, notably Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad, have never failed to live up to the event's status by providing quotable quotes to a local press starved for the headline-grabbing yet politically-correct articles that are rare for most of the year. It was at the Annual Assembly in recent years for example that the rising tension between Mahathir and then political deputy and UMNO President Anwar Ibrahim first manifested itself openly with Mahathir's carefully crafted and dark reference to "...those amongst us who would sell us out to foreigners..." A year or so later, Anwar had gone from front-runner for the Prime Ministership to a political outsider. A little later he was serving time in jail for corruption and still is - yet another high profile illustration of the cut throat business of politics in Asia. The scene had already been set by some Mahathir pronouncements in the first days of the Assembly. In the first fighting statement to the rest of the world, Mahathir declared that Malaysia was not a "moderate Muslim state" as "some Western newspapers" made out, but indeed a fundamentalist Muslim state. Mahathir himself was a fundamentalist Muslim, crowed the premier, and proud of it. It was a victory statement at heart, as UMNO has indeed, through a wake-up call to the UMNO rural heartland political network, won back a lot of the support it lost to the more fundamentalist PAS party in the wake of disaffection with UMNO in the wake of the Anwar sacking. UMNO and the ruling Barisan Nasional had come closer to defeat than any insider would admit in the election following the sacking. Only by the disenfranchisement of younger and new voters due to holdups in registration procedures and the marked swing of Chinese voters to Barisan Nasional, in a fear-based campaign based on the dangers of Islamic fundamentalism with allusions to racial conflict, was BN able to maintain their 2/3 majority. For a new party the opposition (mainly Muslim) Keadilan by normal slow Malaysian standards had performed very creditably. But it was the shift of support on Malays to PAS that was the real significant outcome of the election, with PAS doubling their state representation. The event caused an emotional Mahathir to frequently call Malays "ungrateful" and "lazy" for several months subsequently. It has been a consistent plank of the Mahathir message, founded by his seminal Malay Dilemma discourse penned in his relative political youth, but there have been increasing signs that Mahathir is running out of patience. The second ticking time bomb Mahathir threw out to the press was to restate his long time call to arms to the Malay Rakyat, but this time by incitement and increased ridicule. Mahathir stated that Malaysia would be no-where without the Chinese, and despite all his efforts, Malays had done little to "help themselves". So far all normal Mahathir rhetoric, for he surely is a master of spin. ..And that's not being rude. If Mahathir had not been a master politician and medical practitioner, he would have had the ability to be a great advertising and PR professional. Poor exchange of course, but he talks to the rural Malay in their own language, he engages, and has great charm. Perhaps it's enough that one of his offspring runs one of Malaysia's most successful advertising agencies. The resurgence of support for UMNO is obvious as you travel Malaysia, at least to those who are willing to talk about politics, because the average Malaysian is generally apolitical - happy to follow rather than act. Part of this is a political system where concepts of "left" and "right" fail miserably to analyse Malaysia politics because it's base is religiously and racially based. Parties are defined by race (and in Malay-Muslim majority Malaysia of course that means religion). Yet some contend that there is a silent, educated, and primarily young sector, smart enough to know from recent experience that to speak out is not only sometimes political and business suicide but also ineffective, who are waiting in the side lines for their opportunity. UMNO's resurgence has been driven by both smart strategy and a heap of good luck. Firstly, Mahathir has seriously been making major efforts to stamp out corruption in the staid old traditional UMNO in the past year - unfortunately with limited support. After all, most UMNO political careerists joined for the influence an UMNO position can provide. Mahathir's challenge was quite simply one of organization culture change - and many managers who have tried in private and public enterprise are well aware of how difficult the task. Translate that to a powerful, highly structures, rule-bound, patronised and spoiled organization like UMNO and the enormity of the task must be realized. Even for such a talented and dedicated man as Mahathir, it is a task beyond a man who seemingly is trying to do it all by himself. Secondly, the rural grassroots UMNO membership, though slowly, unevenly and almost belatedly, have risen to the challenge of speaking one to one with voters in the heartland, eschewing their usual remote disposition, and copying PAS's more grassroots approach. Thirdly, and this is the humdinger, the high profile attacks on the USA World Trade Center backed up Mahathir's rhetoric of the danger of Islam fundamentalism, decimating an opposition in partnership as Barisan Alternatif with PAS, Malaysian's main Islam (and more religiously based) opposition. Lucky maybe, an ultimate and predictable result of Islamic separatists maybe, but Mahathir must be given credit. Given his brilliant communication skills and credibility due to past deeds, Mahathir tiptoed along the slippery rope between branding UMNO as both an Islam-credentialed party (to attract back those convinced by PAS that UMNO was somehow 'religiously deviant' and 'impure') AND a tolerant one (to keep the non-Muslim's happy) and so far so good... Yesterday the UMNO Annual Assembly delivered it's promise and more when Mahathir in his concluding speech resigned his leadership in the UMNO and Barisan Nasional political posts after restating UMNO's success at regaining lost support of recent years. In nationally televised scenes reminiscent of either a goal keeper being consoled for missing a shot in extra time, or a striker congratulated by his team mates, the podium was invaded by panic-stricken party members, jumped on the poor PM before he could finish his speech. A weeping Mahathir surrounded by an even weepier team mate contingent was led off the pitch. Now Mahathir had not resigned as Prime Minister of course, but that would have been the eventual next step down the road. As we all know now of course, that Mahathir's deputy Abdullah, covering up his obvious relief and possible heart attack at suddenly finding himself with heaps more power, announced one hour later that Mahathir had retracted, and everything was right with the world again. But what if the reaction to Mahathir's short-lived resignation had been played out in real life, away from the theatrics of the UMNO shindig? Had Malaysia, and the world, been treated to a preview of what would happen if Mahathir, God forbid, died unexpectantly in office or resigned dramatically? His henchmen obviously convinced Mahathir that there would be disaster even if he gave up on the reigns of UMNO, let alone the Prime Ministership. Should we expect similar panic and emotionalism? Some opposition parties are suggesting that the dramatic events of Saturday was pure spin. Maybe. If so, it was an event so well stage managed that the organizers deserve top jobs as script writers for the World Wrestling Federation (WWF) or at the very least referees at the FIFA World Cup. The Rat's take however was that it was a clear and fair dinkum cry for help from a leader for support. It was a demonstration of the extreme over-dependence of UMNO on one man. It may have been a political ploy from Mahathir himself - a final desperate ploy to garner more support for change within UMNO. Mahathir has brought on many problems himself. We respect Mahathir as one of the greatest political leaders world-wide and his talents are under-estimated and badly mis-understood by a world press. Yet, as argued many times before, he has failed miserably at succession planning. His past 3 penultimate deputies spanning 2 decades were appointed on a mentoring basis, but as they gained personal influence and political ideologies of their own, they were quickly disposed of using various political methods. That Malaysia had no statesman even approaching that of Mahathir must be a major source of concern. While neighbouring Singapore, Thailand and even Indonesia can boast many of these, as far as Malaysia is concerned, everything stops until Mahathir speaks. And in the past few years Mahathir had has to resort to personal invective, insults and spin to get his message across to a generally apolitical electorate - perhaps the albatross that Mahathir himself created. Where else in the world do we have one man performing the roles of national political leader, President of his own political party, Leader of the ruling coalition, and Foreign Minister. Add to that the informal roles of keeper of the faith, prime political negotiator, solitary Malaysian Ambassador and Man of the People. The implication is clear. UMNO should be ashamed of itself. Rather than sitting back with self satisfaction, UMNO is clearly resistant to change, and it's main saviour of late has been Osama bin Laden and a band of crazed plane hijackers. In all the implications of Mahathir's emotional cry for help must be understood and acted upon by others in UMNO. Politics and business may move slowly in Malaysia, but move it will, and UMNO must be up to the task to retain it's influence. For all our previous articles on Mahathir over 6 years, use our search facility on the left Email the Chao Phraya River Rat
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© Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine 2002
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