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This week we saw senseless attacks by American citizens on fellow American citizens, notably Muslims. Even those that may look like Muslims - turbanned Sikhs - have been attacked by Americans who are not even smart enough to know the difference. Some cannot distinguish between fanatics and the real Islam peace-loving adherents of the world's fastest growing and most wide-spread civilization. We trust that America's leadership displays far more intelligence than the small amount of their citizenry who can't really tell who the real enemy is. For America's "War against Terrorism" has significant implications for Asian economies, as well as security in many countries in South East and South Asia. Already we have seen in the financial world in our part of the world the portents of what we hope will not come to pass. In one hour earlier this week, the stock markets in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia dived and other markets like Japan were affected on word (later dismissed as a furphy) that Afghanistan had declared a "jihad" against America. While stock markets world wide of course are all currently affected by the US market, this specific move was independently related to the fear of political and military instability in Asia itself. For different but related reasons, these markets are highly exposed to any emotional and irrational military responses from both sides. The Muslim stronghold in South East Asia can be geographically identified as a region stretching from the South of Thailand through Malaysia and Indonesia and Borneo Island to the Southern regions of the Philippines. (see Map of Asia - 180 Kbs) Apart from the Middle East/Central Asia, along with Northern Africa this is the region where Islam traders converted indigenous populations several centuries back. Some areas like significant portions of Borneo Island, Singapore, and Malaysia which were either too remote or dangerous for even the most adventurous of Muslim missionaries (e.g. the head hunter tribe populated areas of Borneo) or had significant proportions of their indigenous population reduced by immigration from China latterly (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia) - have a sparser population of Muslims. Malaysia is an Islam nation where indigenous Malays are Muslim and comprise just over 50% of the population. It however is perhaps the most advanced and successful example of a country where majority Islam and other religions co-exist peacefully and very happily. On matters of Islamic law, most obviously relating to marriage and social relations, and consumption of alcohol and other foodstuffs, only Muslims are subject to Islamic law. Freedom of religion is universal, though proselytising to Muslims is prohibited. However government leaders have warned for several years of the existence of Muslim terrorists in Malaysia, claimed that terrorist-inclined Muslims are members of the main Islamic opposition party (PAS) and warned that extremist sects and bodies in neighbouring Islamic countries are targeting Malaysia. Indonesia comprises more Muslims than any country on earth, with over 90% of its populace of over 200 million at least nominally Muslim. Like Malaysia, it is another example of a moderate Islam nation, though instability due to poverty and the vast diversity of ethnic groups and regions has been building for several decades. This instability regularly surfaces as fundamentalist Islam sects with terrorism as their major weapon, and sometimes manipulated by politicians, stage riots and burn churches and temples, the favour returned by the aggrieved. However freedom of religion is enshrined in the principles of Indonesia's Pancasila. The popular revolution that ousted the authoritarian Soeharto regime was only one factor in the increasing trend of anarchy in a country where the multitude of geographically isolated ethnic groups, religions, and tribes makes national management almost an impossible task. Such an environment, plus the multitude of islands and jungles providing many hiding places, makes Indonesia a fertile sowing ground for terrorist-inclined groups planning international and regional soirees. Indonesia's stock market has been on the rise for the past few months; its decline less evident in last week's fall due to this upward trend, but more significantly to Indonesia's status as an oil producing nation. This is why the Indonesian economy felt less impact, and indeed they have this as a cushion if international oil supplies are affected by military conflict. Additionally, unlike neighbouring countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, as well as East Asian countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, Indonesia is far less dependent on exports to the US. Less than 10% of Indonesia's economy is made up of exports to the US. The Philippines, as regular readers of Clarence Henderson's Pearl of the Orient Seas will know (see Kidnapping Philippines Style and Apocalypse on September 11: Reflections on the New Reality amongst others), has already had its economy adversely affected by militant extremist Islam groups in the South. Though the Philippines is predominantly Christian, Muslim groups particularly in the South would prefer a separate Islam state in their strongholds. Unlike Indonesia, the Philippines is very dependent on exports to the US, and has a traditional and historically significant strong military relationship to the US. Like Indonesia, vast disparities in income marked most dramtically by poverty in Southern Islam strongholds has resulted in the Philippines being yet another center for terrorism, both as a base, and for strikes against national and international targets including Manila. Thailand is a predominately Buddhist country, but with significant Muslim areas in the South, from Phuket through Songkla and Hadyai. Far southern areas are predominantly Muslim. Only a year ago, a major railway station was bombed, resulting in the death of a child, and Thailand and Malaysia work together closely in preventing the upsurge of Islam separatist movements in South Thailand. Though domestic separatist activity has been the target historically, Southern Thailand provides yet another possible base for international terrorist activity. Singapore has less than 10% Muslims, a city state carved off from Malaysia, when Malaysia and Singapore strongman Lee Kuan Yew agreed to separate from Malaysia several decades ago. Previously a shipping port, and also previously as part of Malaysia a British colony, Singapore is unkindly but significantly referred to as a "Chinese enclave", by its neighbours. Chinese make up 75 to 80% of the population. Some of this is due to jealously due to Singapore's economic progress compared to the slower progress of its more ethnically diverse and much larger neighbours in terms of both population and land area. Soeharto's successor as president Habibie once referred to Singapore as "...a little red dot..." and Malaysian and Singaporean leaders continually snipe and snap at each other across the causeway - mainly for their own domestic political reasons. While a country of this small mass and population is much easier to secure internally, and prosperity means that much can be invested in securing this small exposed island state, a glance at the map only confirms that Singapore is meshed right in the middle of Islamic Indonesia, Malaysia and Southern Philippines. Historically, Singapore's immediate threats have been from Japan and international and domestic communist movements, but there is increasing concern in Singapore of instability in neighbouring countries. It is indeed strategically a "...little red dot..." in a mass of green. Like the rest of Singapore citizenry, Singapore's Muslims have been happy to partake in the advantages of a prosperous life courtesy of a paternalistic and smart government. However, like any "enclave", the population as a whole has grown to be isolationist, while the "Singapore way" was being inculturated by the founding fathers. While the government has been encourging a more global outlook now that the Singapore Way is ensconsed, the population as a whole has been slow to follow. Singapore's first problem from the present international terrorist situation is not so much from terrorists within, but in increasing loss of export demand from the US with a stock market that has been significantly and steadily declining for months. Singapore is already in an official recession. Its next problem is similar to the US - as a terrorist target as a wealthy, capitalist and secular state so obviously despised by Muslim terrorist groups. Add to that that it is not too far away from any theatre of war that may develop. Singapore has the best security that money can buy, but no money can stop a suicide bomber suddenly diverting from the airspace of other countries. As one of the major air hubs in the world, Singapore is not without concern. Further afield are countries with traditional and fundamentalist Muslim groups that either form the government, are occupying, or form an established legitimate political opposition. Though they may not support the means used by international terrorists they may support the ends. Pakistan's leaders take a major risk in supporting the US against the wishes of a significant minority of those who their population (though of course Musharraf was not voted in). And sharing the most strategically significant Afghanistan border puts Pakistan truly in the hot seat. America calls this a war. If so, it is a war that must identify the enemy as clearly and precisely as the Twin Towers in New York were targeted by their enemies. Is the enemy Osama bin Laden? Is it terrorists as a whole, and how do we define terrorist? Is it countries who protect terrorists and how do we know if they do? If these questions are not addressed as a priority, or emotion clouds judgement, an escalation of security and political concerns will surely hit Asia. Email the Chao Phraya River Rat
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© Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine 2001
The views expressed here may not necessarily reflect those of partners, publishers, editorial board nor sponsors of the Asia Pacific Management Forum
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