Indonesia has held a free, democratic, opposition political rally, it's first ever. The city was so astounded at the idea that shops, stores, and offices closed up in fear...

An example of the over sensationalism that overseas papers always report on events other countries. YES

Well the journos have gotta make a buck lets face it and the more colorful the story the better.

But amusing Yes! ..and it says less about Indonesia than Thailand, who are rightfully proud of their recent successes in democratization. ..For the new Asia has a strong stake in a smooth election in a country which has made the Bahasa Indonesia word "Reformasi" part of the international language.

The BBC followed the announcement that the 3 major Indonesian opposition parties, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI (Struggle)), Gus Dur's Nation Awakening Party (PKB), and Amien Rais' National Mandate Party, were to form an alliance in the lead up to the election, by stating that the Reform movement would definitely win the election.

Not too risky a prediction.. The independent research think-tank Education Information Economy and Social Research Body, released a poll a few days ago saying that Megawati had 19% of the support, followed by the PKB with 14%, Habibie's Golkar (Worker's party) with 13%, and the National Mandate Party with 10-11%. This gives the Reformasi Alliance a 43% vote count, in a massive field of around 40 separate parties, almost all serious parties with significant pockets of regional, ethic, or religious support. No Free Marijuana or "Save the gay whale" parties here, where people have more serious matters on their mind.

Nevertheless, the science and art of polling in Indonesia is in its infancy. Before it was superfluous activity, for several obvious reasons. Remember the monstrosity of the task for any research group. Phone polling.. forget it! A biased sample if there ever was in a country with an extremely low ratio of private telephones per head. Two hundred ethnic groups and many more languages and dialects, an archipelago made up of thousands of inhabited islands, many accessible only by sea magnify the problem. To some of the poorest people on earth whose daily struggle is to avoid starvation.. politics comes a poor second and is the domain of the relatively richer middle and elite classes. If these guys predictions are anywhere close they deserve a medal.

Holding an election at this time is a necesary expense but at the same time a major strain on resources. A proposal that the how to vote cards be printed in black and white was squashed when it was realised that without the colors, the emblems and logos of several parties would look almost identical. Lots of stars and moons....

Megawati's PDI has the most striking symbol... a pissed-off looking black bull's head on a blood red background. For months, the flags of the PDI have been mounting up from the city to the kampung where the PDI has major support. One of the Rat's correspondents reported these flags a major presence through Bali, Bandung, and many smaller towns in both Java and Sumatra. To some, the flags create an involuntary shiver with their authoritarian-left symbology. Bad international PR maybe, but for many in Indonesia it works. In reality, the international historical images it evokes are a long way from the style and policies of Megawati. One needs also to remember that Megawati is Sukarno's daughter, the predecessor of Soeharto, swept from power by Soeharto 30 years ago during a showdown between the military and the communists. She has experienced first hand the ultimate result of authoritarianism, both from the inside and the outside.

Amien Rais's party gets a lot of credibility from a modest and quiet spoken academic leader who ran the student campaign to remove Soeharto. The National Mandate Party suffers at the same time from this intellectual and middle class image, especially compared with Megawati's grassroots support. And initially there were fears that Rais's policies would lead to the creation of a Muslim authoritarian state, though he has toned down the rhetoric in recent months.

Sitting just off center stage is the man who heads Indonesia's largest Muslim organization, and in the Rat's modest opinion, the smartest man in Indonesia. Gus Dur, around for longer than most Indonesians would care to remember is a strong religious man, but who himself has commented on the danger prescient in further integration of mosque and state.

Gus Dur, almost completely blind, sees things that others don't see.

He has continually toured the country from the major cities to the kampung kecil, with his ears rather than his eyes to the ground. Its a massive effort to bring together such a diverse country, and some confidants of the Rat, say Gus Dur sometimes comes across as confusing. That is the fate of a people's intellectual where the "people" are so diverse. But his power base is such that whoever wins the election, will be having a nice chat to Gus, like, very quickly...

Which brings us to the fact that the alliance has no leader, and the parties state that the leader will be appointed/elected/nominated only after the election. Interesting times come June 7th indeed...

A couple of months ago Gus Dur provided a nice quote....

"Our first president was mad about women,.. our second president was mad about power... Our present President is truly mad..."

Habibie got his reputation from his education in Germany and his strong support for what some say was a gila Research and Development programs during his reign as Science and Technology minister. Everybody knows he is the appointed son of Soeharto, and that is sufficient enough mud to stick. He has shown a lack of diligence in pursuing the enquiry into the Soeharto Clan's wealth and activities.., conveniently washing his hands of the matter and delegating all responsibility to others. ....And of course he's in the wrong party... thought his advantage is he is from South Salwesi.. the people are tired of self appointed Javanese Kings...

Another entrant into the race for President is the governor of Yogyakarta, Sultan Hamengku Buwono, who recived 13% support, just after Megawati in the aforesaid poll, conducted just a week or so ago among almost 3,000 (random??!!) respondants in 5 provinces in Java, including Yogyakarta and greater Jakarta.

For business, as we have for a long time stated in this column, the election is the turning point, though only the beginning. An election that is predominantly successful and peaceful, and that returns a clear vote for one group will only be good for business, both International and local. As in other countries, election related violence will be used by the Indonesian political elite to demonstrate that Indonesia is not yet ready to join South Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines as icons of the New Asia, but should go the way of Singapore and Malaysia where the people are quite happy to continue trade political participation for economic progress. Both models seem to work at present.

Don't expect much work to be done in the next month or so. And your fax machine may grow rusty waiting for replies from Indonesian partners. The people are in serious revolt, scared, joyous, or power mode. In a recent visit to the new industrial Jakarta satellite town of Cikarang, housing such well known names as Epson, Sanyo, Toyota, and Hitachi, a comment was made to the Rat that production was up, not down... And why?.. The bosses were worried that at any time the port could be closed down due to political action. The pressure was on to produce as much as possible and get it out as fast as possible before the election period.

It will be an eventful 3 weeks for sure, but don't think it will be all over in 3 weeks. Then a new President needs to be elected, and its all up hill from there. We've primed up our correspondents in the archipelago to bring you the on-the-ground story as it evolves. What happens in the largest country in South East Asia, and the fourth largest on the world, will not have a insignificant impact on how business is done in Indonesia, Asia, and the world in the new millennium.