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Well the celebrity Chinese horror-scope, geomancy, and feng shui boffins have all had their say. From China to Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore - to Taiwan (who are already on their New Year holidays as of writing) and even to the US - predictions for the Year of the Horse have been galloping in... The Chinese have always had a predilection for fortune telling, lucky numbers, and the supernatural. ...Anything to forestall the centuries-old march of plain old boring determinism and logical positivism that has marked Chinese history - continuously battering and making even stronger the Chinese survival and entrepreneurial spirit. The kind of stuff that can make you an emperor one day, and minus a head the next. The stark reality that no matter how much you try, the forces you can't control will conspire to deliver you a girl rather than a boy, a fool as a business partner rather than a cadré, and make you a traitor rather than a patriot depending on the whims of the current élite. Indeed the Chinese concept of "fate", a final desperate fling at imposing order on a chaotic and amoral world, is seen by many as an explanatory factor in much of Chinese business. We at the Asia Pacific Management Forum have not been slow to emerge from the stalls during the seven animal reigns we have survived under. We have made our own predictions for the year of the monkeys, rabbits, snakes, and rats (my favourite) to mention just a few. About 20% of our predictions came true, around the hit rate of professional soothsayers, economists, psychologists, NASDAQ analysts on CNBC, and weather forecasters. All of whom have a bigger budget Now the Rat isn't Chinese, but like many non-Chinese, I am on a never ending quest to understand the complex nature of Chinese culture and personality and it's implications for business, relationships and - once again after a long time out of the mainstream, - the world order. But today (and maybe just for today) I give up. Maybe its a consequence of the increasingly complex world we live in, where wars have gone from being fought by stoic battle hardened army troops, to the battle for the mind (aka the cold war) through media manipulation and propaganda, to lately being fought by suicide bombers in jet planes. Maybe its globalization, and maybe the ratbags who say that human evolution has ... well ... just stopped. But put all these experts of the supernatural into one bar, and you will get more arguments and pub brawls than if they were a bunch of economists... I never thought I would say it, but the way I'm seeing it right now, if my life depended on making financial and business decisions, I'd plump for the econo-heads. Now the spin we are getting goes like this. It's the Year of the Horse
The characteristics of the Horse include strength, independence, elegance, grace, and reliability. (Yep, always give the good news first) They are also arrogant, impulsive, flirtatious and stubborn. (That sums up perfectly my first two wives and just about all the nags I've bet on)Not only that, it's the Year of the Black horse
The Horse also seems to be a "water element" whatever that means.. So most are saying that "water based" industries like the tourism, entertainment, (now that explains why they are already watering down my beer), fishing, and I would guess even the bare foot water skiing industries will have a bonza year.It's also the "Year of the Horse in the military", and you can even get the predictions of how your own Chinese zodiac animal will fare this year at Chinatown Online. Depending on the country you are soothsaying from, and your closeness to the ruling élite, that country's economy will perform better than other economies.
Malaysian geomancer Dr Rev. Yong (and according to his byline in the Vision KL magazine "...sifu to the rich and famous..."), spends much of his allotted Chinese New year prediction article word count to genuflection... e.g. ..."However Malaysia is very fortunate to be blessed with a visionary Prime Minister who also holds the Finance Minister's post. The Year of the Horse will see him making brave, decisive, and positive remedial actions to overcome the adverse economic conditions.."This year will be better than the last.
Gee... no kidding...Most are predicting market upturns running up to Chinese New Year and just after. Now that's not difficult. Its been the general trend in the 10 years or so I've been following it. ..And it has a somewhat more pragmatic and earthly explanation too.. By tradition, the Chinese must pay off all their debts by the new year to forestall bad luck. Everybody gets their money, everybody is happy, and goes for a splurge on the markets, only to find a few days later that chinese percentages and accountancy has delivered them the annual furphy. OK - enough of predictions based on superstitions. So in the Rat's time-honoured tradition of providing just as substantive predictions as those more highly qualified, I offer my own non-Chinese predictions for the Year of the Horse. Just the facts ma'am... Fact: The horse only sleeps for three hours every day
Prediction: If you were one of the lucky ones that could keep a business afloat and have more than 3 hours sleepies a night last year, forget about it this year.. Advice: Learn to sleep during consulting and accounting firm's presentations. You will actually end up having a better grasp of reality.Fact: Most people lose on the horsies - And more to the fact, the horse racing industry is built on the deadly sin of "having a flutter". The humble punter who keeps the industry afloat, creating racing industry celebrities, society galas, and racetrack fashions shows to keep the amour propre, conceited and narcissistic fashion industry existing, continues to be taken for a ride. Leaving aside the dearth of logic exhibited by gamblers of any kind (long term you will always lose, cause the house has to take a cut), the prognostics are unsettling..
Prediction: If you OWN the scam, it will be a good year for you. If you are merely the one who fuels it (the humble punter, employee, or worse still the poor horsie itself), you'd be pining for the good old Year of the Snake already after only a few days into the new year.... translation into Mao-speak.. (he was Chinese wasn't he?) ...the owners get richer, the workers get poorer.... Advice: Become an owner. If this offends your libertarian or soft left sensibilities learn to go to work everyday humming the well known ditty "..The working class can bite my a**, I've got the bosses job at last..."Fact: Horses snort a lot
Prediction: Expect lots of huffing and puffing this year, spins masquerading as substance and face saving shenanigans. Advice: Don't believe what you read, see or hear. Do what you think will work, and stuff the rest. Start snorting and stamping your feet when people question your business strategies, and retire to the bar for a few short snorts of your own. Heh, it's worked with every boss I know..Fact: They shoot horses, don't they?
Prediction: ..'Nuff said..Happy Chinese New Year! Email the Chao Phraya River Rat
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© Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine 2001
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