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A typhoon hit the Philippines late last week. ..But that blustery Act of God kind was matched in intensity and surpassed in significance by a typhoon that now threatens to finally end Estrada's bumbling reign, characterised throughout by a corrupt small-town mayor model. That typhoon was a (just slightly) less fickle Act of the People. And it's a culmination of a short 26 month reign where mates got the pickings, and those who voted in the mayor were cruelly rewarded for their trust, fantasies, hopes and dreams. As the old ditty goes... "...The working class can kiss my ass - I've got the boss's job at last..." The fact that a people's choice brought to an end a competent and respected Ramos led administration was then and now even more in retrospect a blow to democracy in Asia, and a justification to those leaders in neighbouring countries who practice benevolent authoritarianism - a ruling Emperor's Court type élite that treats their constituency like children and by virtue of position knows better than the great "unwashed". The saddest image yesterday was of Erap visiting a typhoon-hit province symbolic of those that delivered his stunning victory 2 and a half years ago, clinging desperately to the celluloid legitimacy that got him elected. "...It's just like in the movies...", trumpeted Erap the thespian, "The hero gets beaten up in the beginning but still wins in the end..." It was a bad cue... The real hero however may not now be a fantasy movie star, whose wounds are cleaned up in 2 minutes in the make-up tent, but the legitimate real-life beaten-up Filipino heroes who are willing to take on the entrenched, all-powerful culture of corruption that powers decision making today from the tiniest village to the palace. The tide turned precipitously against Erap late last week, and the Rat's key Manila correspondent Raoul was in the thick of it... Mar Roxas waited far too long to make his move, he sat on the fence and brown nosed Erap longer than he should have. His resignation would have had more impact a week-10 days earlier. Still important, but not as explosive or influential if it had been done earlier. His letter of resignation was convoluted and unclear that some columnists are calling "wimpish." His decision to resign was made the evening of October 31st in a family caucus (led by Judy Araneta Roxas, the grand dame of the Liberal Party), attended by various congressmen . . . they were going to announce it the next business day, Monday 11/6, but given the pace of events he went to Malacañang All Souls day and quit. He lost credibility with key groups -- he has been such a "star" (given his political lineage, grandfather was first President of the Republic, scion of old line political family etc.) that everybody thought he walked on water -- but the bottom line is he is a political animal looking ahead to 2001 (he still has time to file for Senate race early in the year) and of course 2004 (God knows the country needs infusion of charismatic and (ESPECIALLY) capable leadership) -- he was stuck between a rock and a hard place, in that he owed a lot to Erap, who has given him ultra-high visibility the last year (like the trade mission to the states, where he was the key spokesperson for bringing FDI here) and wanted to remain loyal (utang na loob, "debt of he heart") -- yet it was clearly becoming a sinking ship. Anyway, he did it, and there's still a pretty good chance others will soon follow. The key right now is the remaining economic group (Pardo at Finance, Buenventura at Central Bank, Diokno at Budget, Medalla at Socio-Economic Planning, and Laguesma at Labor) -- if they fly the coop, hard to see how E. can hold on. during Erap's weekly radio/TV program yesterday (Saturday), Diokno, Medalla and Laguesma reassured the Pres. of their support -- Pardo was conspicuously absent. The rumor mill says Diokno is lying and will resign before the week is out. Pardo is wavering from what I hear, and the key guys will definitely be meeting in a smoke filled room as the week begins (You MIGHT also note that this last week was a dead one here, with All Saint's day Wed-Thursday having been holidays and a typhoon here Friday -- indeed, having as much going on as was going on during such a week here is pretty amazing, it goes to show how important and pressing this mess is). Many people thought that the best thing Erap had going for him was the ECC, a coordinating council of high level advisors -- including former PM Cesar Virata, businessman Washington Sycip, ex-Sen Vicente Paterno, and Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala (JAZA), all respected globally -- and ex-Central Bank Gov. Gabriel "Gabby" Singson. The first four resigned last week, then Singson jumped ship too as he had no desire to be "senior economic advisor" to this administration at this time. On the surface, Erap is cordial and says they didn't need to resign since they weren't really government appointees ... but their absence now leaves a gaping hole in economic intelligence and savvy and credibility. The defections of Drilon (Senate Pres.) and Villar (Speaker of the House) were bad enough, and paved the way for accelerated impeachment process. However, biggest psychological blow was defection of Sen. Nikki Coseteng -- old buddies with Erap, In the movie Sa Kuko ng Agila (In the Claws of an Eagle), Erap played an anti-American jeepney driver in Olongopo and Coseteng a newspaperwoman, together they fought the Americans over the bases -- then they were in the Senate together -- then Erap made her mother Ambassador to Mexico at the expense of a much better qualified career diplomat -- most expected her to stick it out to the bitter end. The combination of losing Mar and Nikki must have hurt. Erap is handing out relief goods to victims of Typhoon Sentiang. Best Erap quote in the morning papers: "It's just like in the movies. The hero gets beaten up in the beginning but still wins in the end." Inside dope: Trusted advisors are pounding on him to see the light, and he's scared to death of the impeachment process -- all the skeletons will come out of the closet, and who know what is still hidden? The key is to find a way for him to save face and protect his family (families) -- people are scrounging around like crazy to find some mechanisms to get him to resign "gracefully" (too late for that, but whatever) --- the Constitution won't allow the next president to pardon him after impeachment -- and most of Cory's suggestions don't quite hold water -- but Filipinos are creative when it comes to bending the rules, so hopefully a resolution will be figured out toute de suite... Raoul...
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© Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine 2000
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