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A couple of weeks after Pauline Hanson's One Nation party rise to prominence again after garnering around 10% of the primary vote in the rural based and conservative states of Western Australia and Queensland, Australian PM John Howard has reduced petrol prices in an effort to win back dwindling support for his conservative coalition from the same short sighted and reactionary voters who voted for One Nation. Just less than 3 years ago, Australians thought they had gotten rid of the sort of isolationist and self centred politics embodied by One Nation by decimating them in the polls. However, Howard's government has not been able to keep the working class and rural voters happy who switched their support from One Nation to the government. Like many conservative governments world wide, the self-serving belief in the trickle-down theory of economics (if you make the rich richer, they will employ more, and enrichen the masses) has failed yet again. It's a great theory, but fails miserably when you factor in the reality of individual greed in Australia and the family based social structure of most of Asia. While the racist sentiments of Hanson makes great copy for government-controlled media in Asian countries who wish to further the myth of Australia as a nation of bigots and racists, the real threat is a trend far more substantive, insidious - and international. It is of a country, like many others in the Asia Pacific, unable to create positive policies to meet the challenges and threats of globalization, creating instead an undercurrent of isolationist nationalistic, and protective sentiment. In Australia, that movement has emerged from opposition politics, in Malaysia it has been nurtured by by the government itself for its own purposes, and Thailand may well follow if Thaksin carries through his anti-foreigner rhetoric. Japan seems like a moribund elephant, realising the reality but unable to do anything about it, after years of recession and an entrenched culture of privilage, and cozy communalism and government/business relationships. South Korea has a similar problem, but with an increasingly militant unions demanding a share of a non-existant pie. Only Singapore and China seem to be taking a positive spin on the new economic order, and it's a struggle there too. Back to Australia, we see a currency that has seen a startling devaluation in the last 12 months, which shows little sign of any substantive turn around. Howard's conservative government bustled their way into power several years ago on the back of the greatest proportion of Australians ever being shareholders. Everyman could be a capitalist and own part of a company. And of course, they would vote for the investors party - the misleadingly named Liberal Party, which in reality represents right wing politics, business interests, and property owners, rather than "Big L" - "Liberal" politics. The first couple of years was good to the newbie investors. More recently however, the same small investors would have been much better off in the past 12 months keeping their money in the bank, with Australian stocks fairly stagnant. And with Australia traditionally following USA economic trends, talk of an American slowdown and recession is doing consumer sentiment no good. Suddenly it's not much fun being a small investor... If Hanson does indeed succeed in taking back "Australia for real Australians", it will be an Australia not worth having, increasingly divorced from the opportunities of globalization, and economically isolated. Thankfully, that's unlikely. Despite her bluster, Hanson still attracts only two to four percent of voters Australia wide, once the more urban and cosmopolitan centers are factored in. Much of her support is coming from backsliders from the rural-based, traditional, elderly and conservative Country Party, the other half of the increasingly fractured Howard government coalition. For many months, splits between the coalition partners have widened, leaving rural voters alienated from Howard's urban conservative Liberal Party, and the ruling coalition government as a whole. The more likely political threat is that the likely winner of this year's General Election - the Australian Labor Party (ALP) - is showing an increasing tendency to espouse the more popularist, isolationist and protectionist aspects of One Nation policy. With it's foundations in worker's unions, the ALP has a tradition of protectionism, nevetheless pushed to the background by two decades of more enlightened Whitlam, Hawke and Keating leadership, and an increasingly middle class power base. An ALP voted in on such popularist policies would be a tragedy for Australian business, and threatens to undo the work of Howard, Keating, Hawke, and Whitlam in building a highly competitive, open, and mature Australia. Contrary to politically-motivated blustering from leaders of other small nations in the region such as Malaysia, Australia is very much part of the broader Asia Pacific region. Relations between the more outward looking countries in the region such as Singapore and China perhaps have never been better. Australia has long ago ceased looking to the UK and is decreasing their dependence on North America to give the lead. Australia has come a long way in integrating Asian communities with both political and business leaders, as well as top professionals from Asian countries playing a critical role in Australian society. Representation of Australians in other Asian countries in such positions of power is almost non-existant. Both New Zealand and Australia have cemented new trade relationships with Singapore, (and possibly China very soon), managing to avoid the fractious and emotional opposition associated with joining a East Asian or Asian grouping. Interestingly, those most again the entry of so-called Anglo-Saxon enclaves joining with Asia are also those from smaller Asian countries, themselves also threatened by the dis-advantages of being a big fish in the era of globlization. As Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad put it so eloquently recently, it is "getting in the back door"... Such a strategy seems sensible in a world where regional groupings are becoming critical, and countries left out will slowly but surely become more isolated and dienfranchised. The next few months is critical for Australia. With all that is at stake, Hanson is simply a pathetic sideshow.
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© Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine 2001
The views expressed here may not necessarily reflect those of partners, publishers, editorial board nor sponsors of the Asia Pacific Management Forum
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