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"..These guys are f...ing crazy.. They didn't even get paid..."

Comment made to the Rat by a Chinese taxi driver while driving past street cleaners cleaning up after Anwar demonstrations.

It would be easy to read the election result as a vindication of the ruling élites go-it-alone strategy to economic recovery and Mahathir's ruthless cutting down of opponents.

Yet look behind the poor showing of Keadilan and some more significant pointers arise concerning the future direction of Malaysia.

Firstly, Barisan Nasional did indeed lose ground, returning 148 seats in a 193 seat parliament compared to 166 in the outgoing 191 seat parliament. Secondly many seats were won by very slender majorities. Thirdly and far more significantly, state election results were poor with the Barisan Nasional losing the oil rich state of Terengganu against PAS, a political force which contemporously provides the greatest threat to the main and mainstream party in the coalition - the Mahathir-led UMNO.

It is pure speculation to infer the reasons why Malaysian voters voted as they did. It is guess work to suggest that Malaysians as a whole approve of the way economic and political crisis have been handled, nor that the success of the Islam-based PAS in Northern Malaysia was a vote for Anwar, an anti-development vote or a vote against Mahathir. Political science theory consistently supports the axiom that intelligent voters rarely vote according to current issues, though where political forces are fairly evenly balanced the "Swinging vote" can many times seat and unseat governments. But these pendulum shifts are transitory and eventually (usually swiftly) the pendulum moves back the other way. Similarly in Malaysia, the election issues on the surface may have focused on the "Anwar factor" and corruption, but apart from his own vacated seat won in convincing fashion though a significant sympathy vote by his wife, these current popular issues took a back seat when voters actually fronted up at the voting booth.

The main election issue at every Malaysian election in the past and well into the future have and will be race, religion and the "hip pocket nerve". These are substantive issues compared to transitory issues that pop in and out of consciousness from election to election.

Let's view what really happened.

• The new Asia reformers represented mainly by Keadilan, mainly Muslim, middle class, and educated were given a vote of no-confidence by the people. Many were alienated by several incidents suggesting that Keadilan were anti-non-Malay and the negative and immature personal attacks on Mahathir early in their inception. That Keadilan repented towards the end, presenting broader reform arguments didn't matter that much. The damage had been done. To the voters, Keadilan represented change, perhaps foreign-inspired, and used the Reformasi tag of inferior Indonesia.

• The Chinese and Indian middle ground or "silent majority" plumped in convincing fashion for the status quo. A vote for the Barisan Nasional was a vote of confidence in the past being able to deliver in the future, and for the means justifying the ends. It was a vote for the principle that one should be on the winning side, no matter how that win is achieved. This was demonstrated most evidently in the rout of the Chinese based DAP, where the long-time leader Lim Kit Siang, a honest and courageous advocate of reform in parliament way before it became trendy, was defeated in his contested Penang seat. Out too... high profile Anwar lawyer and DAP leader Karpal Singh. The previous Chinese and Indian DAP voter clearly said they don't like change while things are going well.

• A conservative backlash in Northern Malaysia, where PAS added Terengganu to Kelantan as their state seats, now representing 2 of the dozen or so Malaysian states, and the former a rich Petronas revenue earner. PAS leader Nik Aziz, a passionate advocate of a Muslim state for Malaysia represents Islam conservatism against the more moderate UMNO version. Both states are Malay dominated and the people relatively poor, Terengganu less so. English language skills and access to electronic media is more limited meaning the government media did not have as much influence in these states as others. Despite the strong grassroots involvement of UMNO, PAS were able to influence better with their Malay language Harrakah and by winning the "poster war". Nick Aziz's attitude to women was best summed up by his statement a few month's back that civil servant positions should be given to "ugly women" as beautiful women can easily find a husband.. There has also been some suggestions that the Terengganu rakyat actually resented BN largesse in the form of development projects mainly in tourism and infrastructure. BN therefore lost the golden goose that they are able to hold out to Malaysians elsewhere... Modernization, and Westernization (and the latter is definitely no typo, in spite of Mahathir's anti-western rhetoric.) They actually may LIKE to live in the community Kampung and shop at the Pasar Malam rather than drive Protons and shop at Isetan. (see also Blanchard's Christmas Parable for a different twist from 3 years ago on the development issue).

All positive and negative connotations aside, at this time and place, Malaysians voted along racial lines for conservatism. Whether it be via Islam fundamentalism, or Chinese dislike of change, or just the Malay avoidance of confrontation and conflict. ...Nothing more, nothing less... The Malaysian ruling élite, self-interest clearly in hand, says that Malaysians like change by evolution rather than revolution, and in that, they have been proved right. But will the ruling élite be willing to let go of some power to ensure that this evolution is fast enough? We do not even hazard (or risk) a guess.

The trickle-down theory of wealth automatically being distributed to the poor after the rich have become richer, has been exposed as a cruel lie elsewhere in the world. It's a nice theory, but is always ambushed by the selfishness of the rich. Paradoxically the legacy and triumphs of BN rule which is trumpeted by BN so much, includes a major contribution from the man they put in jail, who lobbied internally in BN to redistribute wealth faster. We are no government apologists. Anwar has been no more (and most probably much less) guilty than most of his ruling part mates sitting in government. The difference is he challenged the politico-industrial-economic elite and no longer came under their protection. The scramble of politicos to disassociate themselves from Anwar post-sacking is just one example of the power of this protection.

The power play in UMNO of which the Anwar sacking and incarcenation is, though tragic, a small part, has put at risk the solidarity of the Malay and unity of the country, the very thing which the ruling élite fears the most. BN has clearly won Chinese and Indian support, but at the expense of Malay support.

It is here that the BN win, though spectacular at first glance given the circumstances, may well ring hollow in years to come. But there is another major threat to Malaysian prospects and stability.

We are now no closer to realizing a successor for Mahathir. The three he previously groomed are either in the big house or blustering around the country (and others) acting as if they have lost their mind. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who was expected to have a strong claim if he could return Terengganu failed there. UMNO Youth aspirants made such silly charges during the election that even given Malaysians' extreme patience with politicians, have lost credibility, especially amongst the rural Malay. Though word is that Mahathir dislikes sycophants personally, publicly sycophancy rules, and is a clear road to success in the ruling party. Malaysians also have demonstrated they like strong leaders, yet none has arisen. There is a political vacuum for sure, and with Mahathir having surely to resign in this term, this is a sure concern for investors and business people. Besides the new leader will have to sort out relationships with a PAS sitting on heaps of oil revenue up North, which requires nothing less than a man of the stature of Abdurrahman Wahid of Indonesia.

Where is this man (or woman?)

For sure there is the talent in Malaysia, but whether he resides within the government or the battered and sorry talents like Chandra hanging out at a decimated Barisan Alternatif or even at the stretch of imagination from PAS, is anyone's guess. The DAP has been almost decimated.

Then again, it's hard to follow a miracle worker, which Mahathir surely is.

Or has he not really been the Messiah... but just a very naughty boy...

Conservatism has it's drawbacks...

Relevant links:
Blanchard's Christmas Parable
Asia Business Portal (presently Malaysia focus)
Election preview
Malaysia does it "His Way"
See also Search's on the left.