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Thailand Prime Minister Chuan set the scene for a thought-provoking and stimulating conference stressing the important of education for under privileged groups, followed by an analysis by Dr Cho Khong, senior political analyst for the London based Global Environment Group at Shell International.

According to Cho Khong, "..Asia is at a turning point..." .. Yes, I think we all agree with that... but his analysis was more thought provoking that many latter analyses of why and how it can be handled.

According to Khong, the continent is being squeezed by two sets of forces pushing the world into the post-industrial era. The continent will emerge from the economic crisis and move into the 21st century under two possible scenarios - one based on a rather chaotic "people's power", or under "the new game" of "rules-based stability". The two forces he called "TINA"; The top-down force comprises liberalisation, globalization and technology, The bottom-up "TINA" comprises education, wealth and choice. Both TINA forces will open opportunities as well as imposing strain and stress in society.

From these forces, either of two options will evolve - people's power with diversity, identity, and what Chao Khong described as "tailorism" ( a nice play of words we guess evoking the F.W. Taylor vision of work study and efficiency), or individual solutions fixing the problems. This scenario entails people getting smarter and more able to exercise choice while institutions are unable to adapt.

It gets even more interesting for those whose futures are inextricably tied with the development of Asia in the future.

According to Cho Khong, countries with small and medium firms such as Taiwan may thrive. The younger generations will use their innocence and creativity to bypass problems which the government cannot solve. The Asia's people's-power scenario will be dictated by reforms being undermined by vested interests with policy paralysis, prolonged stagflation, and rumblings of dissent. There will be political challenges and loosening of central control. Grass-roots influence will be the order of the day. There will be a re-vitalization of alliances liberating entrepreneurial talent. Growth will resume in Asia after 2005.

The second scenario of "the new game", is where state organizations are able to cope with the changes "from exhortation to rules-based stability". This system would require transparency and an efficient market. Business will be done above the table and not below the table. There will be a gradual democratisation and a clear delineation of property rights. Asia's development model will be recast as people learn to innovate. "It will be an Asian third wave, safety nets for economic efficiency".

According to Cho Khong an end of an era has come to Asia because state guidance had led to cronyism, high savings to wasteful investment, networks to corruption, authoritarianism to lack of feedback, consensus to intolerance, high leverage to bankruptcy, and education to less tolerant citizens.

More specifically, Cho Khong saw problems for China, because "it was an illusion to try and isolate politics from economics". We are not sure whether this was a criticism of China itself, but is probably better directed to the US, whose latter history of engagement with China has shown that self- serving seeking of economic synergies while sweeping political differences under the carpet leads inevitably to no-where at all. The Clinton-led China policy, where under pressure of US business interests, politics played a poor second to greed, must now be seen by almost all as a sham. US and China are no further along the road of "constructive engagement" (ie; Let's make as much money as possible anyway and forget our principles for a bit...) than they were five years ago, and possibly less so.

From where the Rat sits, both scenarios seem to be acting out already. Indonesia is obviously the prime example of people's power where development is assured but beaus a fundamental change in power is underway (though still not assured), one has to go backwards before going forward. 2005 seems to a good estimate of when real economic progress will return to Indonesia, but by then, it will be based on a sounder foundation. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Singapore seem to be taking a second route, where these economies have committed to the capricious long term advantages and short term disadvantages of engagement with the global economy. Especially in the case of Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan, the younger "innocent" and "Creative" generation are being empowered to create a new Asia. Malaysia, China and Vietnam seem to have priorities to ensconce the ruling elite at the cost of this empowerment, though Malaysia certainly is making superhuman efforts to improve transparency and reduce corruption within the existing power structure. It is still unclear what scenario is evolving in Japan as the world's second most powerful super power. It may well be that the younger generation are being empowered in Japan as well, but as the Asian economy where tradition and conservatism are the most highly entrenched and inextricably tied with business practice, it will be a slower process, and trends far slower to emerge.