One year after President Soeharto left office, Indonesia still offers a salutary case study of what rule by a strongman and it's sudden termination can do to a country. The trials and tribulations which its people have to endure are a painful reminder of what a sudden transition from authoritarian rule to nascent democracy entails. The important question... is whether the stability which a third world country needs badly for orderly economic development is ever possible without authoritarianism. The fact is that the order and relative peace which President Soeharto imposed on his people provided the framework for an impressive edifice of development.

For Singapore itself has been the most publicised Asian model of what authoritarian governance can do in raising a "third world country" to developed status in a few short years. Singaporeans have happily traded political representation and participation for prosperity. And 95% of them and the rest of the world are very happy about that thank you! As PM Goh himself says.. "..Singapore is the safest boring place in the world!..." Western commentators have reduced their criticism over the pat few years, preferring to concentrate on the stranger happenings further North on the country that Singapore left. Simultaneously, Singapore has been slowly, with very little publicity, been increasing freedoms and embracing the global world. As we predicted several years back, they have left others to shake the Asian values can. It is almost as if the strict but loving and paternal father had decided the kids could now make up a few more decisions for themselves.

Two incidents from friends of the Rat in recent months have underlined this. One publisher stated they were "knocked out of their tree" when a book containing harsh criticisms of founding PM and now elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew was approved for sale in Singapore. That publisher for years has routinely submitted applications for Singapore distribution, and quite sensibly expected any publication even slightly critical of Singapore to be rejected. The application procedure was just a formality, as part of a structured system for getting distribution approved in any country. Suddenly, there was mass panic in the corridors to catch up on lost time, seeing all had assumed that such a book could not be published in the Lion city and the necessary pre-work for local distribution had not been completed.

Another publisher also noted more favorable judgments on their material as well.

Our own current article of the month, from a very different perspective, also examines the problems in reforming too fast, comparing China's experience with other recently opened up economies. and the Rat himself has argued in the past that in no way is authoritarian governance an Asian trait, but more a third world trait. At the risk of sounding patronising, democracy and a free society works best where the populace are beyond worrying about where they will get tomorrow's Nasi Lemak, have a higher level of education, are more homogeneous in make-up, and are willing to take responsibility for their own governance.

We do take issue with the subtle though clear suggestion however, that authoritarian government and progress has always gone together. It is certainly the case with Singapore, but Marcos' and Ramos's Philippines are in masked contrast. The authoritarian Marcos brought the country to collapse, the less authoritarian and born-again Ramos brought it to relative prosperity in a short time. Thailand, with a more-or-less democratic system traded corruption for a growth rate in the late 80's to mid 90's that out shone all of Asia. Under Kim Dae Jong, South Korea's more democratic and open government has seen major advances under his less than 2 years in power.

As for the masterfully penned .. "...the order and relative peace that Soeharto IMPOSED..." an equally valid argument would be that Soeharto was certainly successful in sublimating tensions for a long time, but the Indonesian people are certainly paying for it now. And of course,, as always in any part of the world... Absolute Power corrupts... The fact is that religious tensions and ethnic violence have been the norm in Indonesia for a long time. Anyone who has worked and traveled in Indonesia for the past 2o years would attest to the gradual but persistent growth in attacks on temples, churches and mosques and ethnic violence right up to Soeharto's resignation. Certainly these incidents have increased many fold since Soeharto's resignation, but part of this is because of the concomitant massive increases in poverty and also the freeing of the press, which can now give more attention to these issues. Under Soeharto's severe muzzling of the press, these incidents were well know amongst locals, but rarely published.

Soeharto's "impressive edifice of development", was exposed in the end to be a Javanese castle built on sand. The sand being that of misleading government and private company accounts, misleading investors and even seemingly savvy economists in the IMF and the World Bank to overestimate badly Indonesia's economic health and prospects. It was an economy built more on rhetoric, greed, and promise than substance. It was an impressive edifice three years ago. But now...? Friends of the Rat in Indonesia maintain that the real precipating factor for Soeharto's dismissal were the actions of some of his offspring who took advantage of the old man's absence for medical treatment to further their own individual interests. Strangely enough the story of this coloroful family spat has never been taken up by the mainstream press. It was then that the now leaders of the Reform movement decided something had to be done.

The icons of the old, privileged, and ensconsed Asia are looking to the Indonesian election with some concern. To this very small privileged elite, a smooth Indonesian election which installs a successful reform oriented government certainly has it's dark side! There is no chance that the post election period will be incident and violence free, and power plays between the multitude of now opposition groups will be massive. To most Indonesia's however, the pain may well be worth the gain.

The same group of the Asian elite need only look to Malaysia to get a warmer feeling. There Mahathir's Barisan Nasional coalition with UMNO in the ascendancy is set for a victory, the extent of which will surprise international observers. BN will lose some support but not much. With the deftness for which he is renowned PM Mahathir has turned opposition into advantage by a masterful rojak of nationalism, creation of a common enemy, and good old fashioned control of information and the institutions. It is traditional Asian politics on a grand scale, and it will offer great comfort to those who are today looking to Indonesia with trepidation.

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