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| ...All the Asia business news that didn't fit... |
| Archives: October 2001 Daily commentary on Asian business strategy, management, market research, marketing tips, business prospects, economic and culture news. Market prospects. Economic prospects. Short reviews, links, advice, satire and topical coverage for international and Asian managers doing business in Asia. The Hari Ini column is available daily on the Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine home page. Sure.. go there now for more of the same. At least it's fresher... This page contains one month of the archives. The Hari Ini column documents off-the cuff comments, very odd spots, unsubstantiated rumours, misinterpretations, cruel innuendo, limp jokes, dodgy links, tips lacking in credibility, and other material very roughly related to Asian business, marketing, management, culture, politics, economics and why the earth is round. Some of the items emerge into sections later on; some are contributed by email or word of mouth by friends of the forum, columnists, editorial advisors, and the Chao Phraya River Rat. ..Most of it just ends up here...
Basically it means we can at least comment on happenings that we wouldn't otherwise have the time to. "Hari Ini" means "Today" in both Malaysian and Indonesian. ..Which means that everything on this page is already outta date... As the masthead suggests, this column also includes all the news that doesn't fit.. It also means we can add some lightheartedness and CNN type shallowness to our otherwise more serious content. As CNN proves, such content sells... Mostly the column just reflects the mood of the editors on the day, and gives a potted summary of key issues in the region. If you want it to reflect your mood as well, email us contributions at chiyo@apmforum.com. Chiyo Hyiuiki (Webmaster, and on behalf of the editors)
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November full moon shines
For Mohamad Mahathir and the current Malaysian ruling élite, the terrorist and Anthrax attacks on America has major silver linings that go far beyond the uptick for Malaysian rubber maunufacturing companies in the wake of Anthrax attacks (Malaysia is the world's largest exporter of rubber gloves). The government controlled press is pushing several lines. Most obvious is the justification for recent arrests under the Internal Security Act (ISA) of prominent opposition figures and not-so prominent presumed Islamic radicals. ISA provides for detention without trial. The American press is now showing signs of self censorship, and the propounding of alternative views is discouraged. America under attack now understands why Malaysia also controls free speech boasts the English language New Straits Times and local strategic thinktanks. Secondly is the more subtle and long lasting campaign to defend Asian values and a different view of democracy, human rights and free speech from Western ideals, the latter which the Malaysian élite feels is threatening stability and national soveriegnty. But the third and most important is the chance for Malaysia to hold itself up as a model successful moderate Islamist state. And the man with most to gain is Mahathir himself... For all his perceived failings from a Western point of view, Mahathir is far from the devil he is held out to be. While his treatment of political opposition is authoritarian, and the separation of powers of the judiciary, police, and government is debateable, there is no greater selfless Malaysian patriot than Mahathir. His own belief seems simply to be that there is no man that he can trust after over 20 years in power to make a reality of his vision for Malaysia commenced 2 decades ago. His right hand men have all failed his own tests. Anwar failed becuase of his alleged homosexuality which Mahathir as a conservative Moslem found repugnant, (in fact the head of the Malaysian Islam police is on record as stating that homosexuality is a sin far more abhorent than murder). The last finance minister Daim was elbowed out quietly as the extent of his cronyism and close business-political relationships became more apparant than was politically healthy. Others in the past were just far too corrupt, and Mahathir now publically wages his own war on corruption within UMNO, the power-centre of Malaysian politics which Mahathir heads. Mahathir would like to go out with a bang, and having his beloved Malaysia recognized as a model Islamist state would be a legacy befitting of the acheivements of this great man. The first problem of course is having Malaysia recognised as a Islamist state, for while Malays who are by birth lifelong Moslems comprise around 60% of the population, Malaysia is more known as a multicultural country rather than an Islamist country. Non Muslims like the substantial Chinese and Indian minorities have rights to practice their own religion, consume non-halal items like pork and alcohol, and are not subject to Islamic law like the majority Malays. To be a model successful moderate modern Islam state of course Malaysia must first be an Islam state, which seems to be up to the ulamaks, (Islam religious teachers). Accordingly, Mahathir announced last month that Malaysian indeed met all the requirements of an Islam state and "already was one". Politically it was a challenge to fundamentalist opposition party PAS, which increased their electoral support from Malays in the wake of the Anwar sacking and their more fundamentalist Islam image. While it was a nice strategy in the "holier than thou" party political war for hearts and minds, it's greater significance is in the international arena. Certainly Malaysia can lay good claims to being the most modern and prosperous Islam state, - especially if you ignore a few even lower profile states such as Brunei and Dubai. The world's other Twin Towers - the largest building in the world located in Malaysia's capital Kuala Lumpur - is an ultra modern structure topped by Islamic inspired spires. The symbology is clear. It is on more substantive criteria however, such as GDP, average salary levels, health care, infrastructure, Mahathir lays his claim for Malaysia to be seen as the world's most prosperous Muslim state when he addresses Muslim bodies and governments, and that despite it's smallish size, other countries can learn much from Malaysia. There are legal impendiments however due to Malaysia's secular consitution. According to former Lord President Salleh Abbas - "...Malaysia can be described as a Muslim country because the majority of our citizens are Muslims but it cannot be described as an Islamic state... ...This was because the highest law in the country is the Federal Constitution and Syariah law (Islamic law) is only a branch within the constitution...". - Malaysiakini. There are political impediments too. Mahathir's coalition was largely returned in the last election on the votes of Chinese concerned with the likelihood of opposition party PAS furthering their policy to make Malaysia an "Islamic State". PAS's ex-opposition coalition member, the Chinese DAP recently split from PAS largely due to PAS's refusal to drop that part of their platform. That aside, being seen as a leader of an "Islamic State" increases Mahathir's credibility in Middle East and other Muslim countries. But that is only a stepping stone to Mahathir's vision of being accepted as such internationally rather than within the Islam brotherhood exclusively. To be recognised by the non-Islamic world however, Mahathir cannot allow his strong beliefs to shoot himself in the foot. The Malaysian Prime Minister's Department complained officially to AP that their reporter, Sean Young, had "mischievously" interpreted Mahathir's statement in parliament towhit - "...if they wanted to take action, they should pick on those who had acted against them, and I would support them if they had committed these terrorist acts against Israel because Israel had killed many Palestinians." as advising the anti terrorism alliance to attack Israel. No, said the PM's Department, Mahathir actually meant he would have supported the terrorists, not the anti-terrorism alliance if they had attacked Israel. It may seem shocking to outsiders that Mahathir actually supports terrorists under certain circumstances, but it raised merely a murmur in Malaysia. We have got used to the Mahathir outburst. Yet indeed, the statement suggests that Mahathir supports terrorists, if they attack targets he wants them to. Such a statement is consistent with Mahathir's "means justifies the ends" approach to internal politics, but surely does not give him any credence as a "moderate" Muslim leader internationally. Indeed by his own words, Mahathir distances himself from almost all other world leaders, who have denounced terrorist methods on any target. (Of course the hoary question on the actual definition of Terrorist is relevant, but Mahathir has clearly supported suicide airplane attacks on civilians in Israel, should they occur.) And the implications for Malaysian business? International business has for a long time been willing to ignore Mahathir's rhetoric in favour of Malaysia's distinct advantages - good and growing internal consumer demand, acceptable though sometimes inefficient infrastructure, moderate set up costs, security and English language skills of Malaysian businesspeople. There is no reason to believe that will change while Mahathir carries out his more political agendas.
It's a 20 minute bumpy twin prop aircraft ride from Jakarta to Indonesia's fourth largest city - Bandung. ...Or a 3 hour scenic train ride which when adding together travel time and waiting time at airports is actually much faster. This time we opted for the air option. Waiting for us at Bandung airport was our taxi driver, plastered over his rear view mirror in white chalk the exhortation.. "...YES!.. I am Moselem.." (sic). Perhaps he got tired of answering the question in a city famous for it's textile industry but more for Asian tourists in particular, it's Sudanese food, culture, and elegant women. The anti-American protests are ongoing in Bandung, but our taxi driver was friendly and chatty - a quiet ambassador for Indonesia's moderate and tolerant brand of Islam. Back in the hotel this morning, our Muslim Bandung hosts dont seem worried in the slightest by the few noisy demonstrations over Indonesia, including several foreigners, who having lived through and stayed put during the Soeharto demonstrations, see absolutely no reason to leave now. The same scenario is being repeated in coffee houses throughout Indonesia. Despite the deployment of water cannons and warning shots in Jakarta, it's still business as usual, though as always foreign workers are invited guests in a country, and should do what they are asked to,and maintain a low public profile. For a different view of current events try Islam On-line, and why the Spice Girls gets on Osmar's goat. "...Having a Spice Girl and her bikini-babe dancers prance around in the deserts of Oman like so many trampy tarts, isn't showing respect..." Mind you it doesn't show much respect to anybody, Muslim or not, who has even the slightest modicum of good taste... Meanwhile over in the Philippines, with Islam separatist activity always being a concern, the stock market has been in almost free fall over the last few days, with the main index over 4% down already today. There is considerable concern in Manila that the Philippines is becoming the most affected South East Asian economy by the War against Terrorism.
Today, anti-US demonstrations turned violent in Jakarta, accompanied by similar less violent demonstrations in other Indonesian cities like Bandung, and Surabaya. While our base, 10 minutes walk away from the US embassy, looked normal with sate and noodle sellers doing their normal business, warning shots, tear gas and water cannons were unleashed on several hundred demonstrating in front of the US embassy. For a second day, expatriates were advised to stay home, and many businesses employing foreigners simply did not open, however there was no rush on tickets at the Jakarta airport, and many were staying put. In the café's and street intersections, Osama bin Laden's face gazes out from the front pages of countless Bahasa Indonesia newspapers, sold by wandering hawkers. The English language Jakarta Post is more circumspect and objective, but it is impossible to note that there is a divide in Indonesia now, - a divide more threatening than that existing at the time of anti-Soeharto demonstrations when there was considerably more agreement on the need for change. As a foreigner, have meetings in Jakarta now, and you will not find any support for the US vs Islam jihad - just disconcertion and the usual Indonesia reticence to discuss matters of politics. For a small vocal majority this time threatens to drown out the voices of the quieter great majority of every faith. The strikes at Afghanistan on the weekend have to some extent galvanised opinion among the leadership of Arab and Muslim states as well as moderate Muslim majority countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Both Mahathir in Malaysia and Megawati in Indonesia have been very cautious in their statements, careful of inflaming extremist Islam sentiment in their own countries. Both make it clear however, that the military options should not have been exercised. However the PAS opposition leader in Malaysia, as have many Muslim leaders throughout the region, been direct in labelling the attack as an attack against Islam, mirroring the belligerent statements of Osama bin Laden. Curiously, Mahathir with a key agenda of promoting Malaysia as the most modern and sucessful Muslim-majority country, took pains last week to emphasise that Malaysia was, in practice, a Muslim State, and that it met all the requirements of the Ulamas. This further illustrated local political agendas in Malaysia, where the government has been pushed to adopt more fundamental Muslim stances in order to attract voters lost to the opposition Islamist party, while still keeping the Chinese and Indian vote which kept them in power at the last election. Mahathir of course is emphasising to the world that it is possible to have a model Islamic state which does not harbour murderers, is multi-racial, tolerant, and boasts a high standard of living. It is to be seen just how succesful Mahathir's strategy will be in reducing Muslim separatism in his own country. The key danger for these leaders is a geopolitical shift that includes South East Asia, where conservative and fundamentalist Muslims may be convinced by the West vs Islam rhetoric and move their allegiance to regional or international Islam leaders and away from their national states. It is still unlikely, but possible, that this shift may lead to something similar to the International Socialists movement of the 1960's to 70's, which failed miserably with the breakdown of the USSR, and China's lack of progress with that foreign and imported ideology. While the war on terrorism may be long and drawn out, the battle for hearts and minds will be less dramatic, but more significant... International business more than ever, needs to be aware of these changes, rather than withdrawing in haste.
The streets of Jakarta are their normal bustling selves today in the wake of a escalated threat to Megawati by extremists that they will target American interests and foreigners following the first night of attacks against the Taliban and terrorist camps in Afghanistan. But the situation may change quickly. The Islamic Defender's Front have given Megawati 72 hours to sever relationships with the US. This ragbag collection of political opportunist financiers, naive, insular spiritual leaders, and bought-off professional rioters have enough support from a tiny section of corrupt establishment pressure group figures to cause major disruption to Indonesia's admittedly halting recovery. From our hotel the American embassy, around 10 minutes walk away in one direction, is presently guarded by a few dozen armed police, with water cannons on stand by. Ten minutes in the other direction and the Welcome monument, traditional demonstrasi ground zero and flanked by the old Hotel Indonesia, Mandarin Oriental and the Grand Hyatt is guarded similarly. American, British and Australian embassies have advised their citizens in Jakarta to stay at home. On the stroll down to the Welcome monument you pass a massive McDonald's oulet, a giant Ronald McDonald perched on the rooftop. On the second floor is a Hard Rock Café oulet - (Love all.. Serve all). During previous times of instability two of three tanks parked out front - today when we walked past ealy this morning, the tanks have still to arrive. A mass demonstration has been called for 5pm at the American embassy by the Islamic Defender's Front (more correctly the "Terrorist's Defender's Front"), which given experience from previous recent activity will spill over to Merdeka Square/Welcome monument later in the night. The Rupiah declined sharply today, and the stock market is down by almost 4% at 12 Noon local time, with export-dependent stocks taking the brunt. Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim dominated country, but it is not an Islam state, and the mainstream establishment brand of Islam here is tolerant and moderate. Along with Malaysia, and despite the Asian political and economic crisis, Indonesia remains one of the most successful Islam dominated countries in terms of economic development, unlike many hardline religious states in the Middle East and Central Asia. Indeed, it is just because of the strong recognition of the right of other beliefs and religion to coexist that sets these two modern Islam countries apart. Indonesia, the fourth largest country in the world, also boasts one of the most ethnically diverse populations. Jakarta is an urban magnet for people from throughout the Archipelago, and to a substantial extent people have learned to live together. However, outside Jakarta, the country is characterised by diverse religious, tribal and ethnic power bases, and it is from these insular strongholds that trouble making foot soldiers will be shipped in from. Jakarta may be the center of the symbolic assault on the "godless" West, but it is in centres such as Solo, Medan, Surabaya, Aceh, where the potential for real dislocation is possible. The same police chiefs who know where Tommy Suharto is, but are scared to arrest him for fear of ending up being blasted by a shotgun while riding in their car, also waver on how well they can protect citizens and foreigners. First time visitors to Indonesia are often surprised by the diversity they see around them. Malaysians, whose image of Indonesia is shaped by the Malaysian government's agenda of proving that people based democracy does not work, are surprised by the existance of modern shopping malls comparable to those in the KL Twin Towers or anywhere in the world. There are grand mosques every where of course, but there are also numerous smaller churches and temples around every corner in Jakarta. And it is all cemented together by the soul of Indonesia, the friendliness of her people. While fundamentalist Muslims sign up to fight a jihad in Afghanistan, and blame ex president Wahid Abdurrahman (Gus Dur) for "renewing communism" by rescinding anti-Chinese laws, the Music Café in Jakarta, Bandung and Medan as well as the Hard Rock Cafés in Jakarta and Bali remained well attended by people of all faiths last week. Today, people are just a bit more careful... Today and following days will prove to be a major test for a nascent Indonesian democracy and new President Megawati just as cracks are starting to appear in a cobbled-together leadership - in reality brokered by less visible ghosts of the past and ambitious dictators of the future. Stay tuned.
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Happy Loy Krathong from the Asia Pacific Management Forum and the Asian Business Street Intelligence Ezine
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