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| Archives: October 2000 Weekday commentary on Asian business strategy, management, market research, marketing tips, business prospects, economic and culture news. Market prospects. Economic prospects. Short reviews, links, advice, satire and topical coverage for international and Asian managers doing business in Asia. The Hari Ini column is available daily on the Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine home page. Sure.. go there now for more of the same. At least it's fresher... This page contains one month of the archives. The Hari Ini column documents off-the cuff comments, very odd spots, unsubstantiated rumours, misinterpretations, cruel innuendo, limp jokes, dodgy links, tips lacking in credibility, and other material very roughly related to Asian business, marketing, management, culture, politics, economics and why the earth is round. Some of the items emerge into sections later on; some are contributed by email or word of mouth by friends of the forum, columnists, editorial advisors, and the Chao Phraya River Rat. ..Most of it just ends up here...
Basically it means we can at least comment on happenings that we wouldn't otherwise have the time to. "Hari Ini" means "Today" in both Malaysian and Indonesian. ..Which means that everything on this page is already outta date... As the masthead suggests, this column also includes all the news that doesn't fit.. It also means we can add some lightheartedness and CNN type shallowness to our otherwise more serious content. As CNN proves, such content sells... Mostly the column just reflects the mood of the editors on the day, and gives a potted summary of key issues in the region. If you want it to reflect your mood as well, email us contributions at chiyo@apmforum.com. Chiyo Hyiuiki (Webmaster, and on behalf of the editors)
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Things continue to get worse. ABC reports that the Indonesian justice minister Yusril Mahendra has just proposed to charge Australians a $96 entry visa. The Governor of Bali has said "...Japanese tourists usually have more money and are more disciplined than those from Australia...". It seems the less affluent Ozzies are not spending enough in Bali, so they will be charged a surcharge upfront for their cheap ways. Maybe it's a good way to raise revenue, though it would seem even more sensible to charge Japanese the same too, as, so the Indonesians think - they can afford it... On the other hand Bali might sensibly be rebranding Bali as a more up-market destination. In either case, we hope the good minister has got his figures and strategy right, though there may be smarter strategies - increasing room rates for all for example, avoiding the accusation of discrimination and bad feeling from a neighbour. Imposing such a levy will certainly open up the market for highly competitive destinations such as Langkawi, Phuket and Pacific Islands which boast similar attractions, slightly higher airfares but lower accommodation costs. We can imagine the tourist heads there will be sporting broad smiles this morning. Out of the satay grill, and into the hot coals: Amien Rais, the man who nominated Gus Dur for President, told a group of his faithful last week that he made a mistake, and that the President should be removed. The statement comes after a bad couple of months for Gus Dur including continued decline in business confidence, little progress in quelling successionist action in several provinces and financial scandals involving close confidants and family members. ..Not forgetting of course accusations that he has been engaging in a little bit of the old illicit in-and-out. Of course Rais does not regret it at all. His nomination was an attempt to prevent Megawati attaining the Presidency, an unthinkable prospect for Rais' moderate to radical Muslim PKB party who nonetheless performed poorly in the polls. Gus Dur's nomination was intended to buy Rais time to expand his own power base, while avoiding being associated with the messy business of transforming Indonesia from anarchy to some semblance of order. That was a dirty job that academic Rais hardly wanted. A Rais government would do things very differently of course. For those who know Malaysian politics (the other major Muslim-dominated country in South East Asia), his views approach that of the conservative Islamic policies of PAS rather than the more tolerant UMNO. Certainly revoking anti-Chinese statutes as Gus Dur has done would not have been a priority. And while Gus Dur, rightly or wrongly, has focused externally, Rais' view is far more inward-looking. We continue to believe that the rebuilding of Indonesia is a mammoth job that will take years of patience. Corruption is entrenched in a reward system that will take a long time to change. There is no evidence that Rais' existing power base of urban intellectuals and provincial firebrands would have done any better. ..And to seriously form a large enough base in a new parliament, Rais would have to do deals with the same devils that Gus did.
While the boys are playing, the Thai Baht hit a 31 month low yesterday at 44.17 against the US dollar, and even though the Bank of Thailand was denying it yesterday, almost all BKK friends of the forum are saying that the BOT definitely stepped in late in the day to reverse the fall. Not much will happen on the business front in Thailand until the election. Being the first general election held under the new reform constitution (the previous Senate election took 5 replacement polls to conclude a result in some districts as the Electoral Commission declared poll after poll invalid due to electoral discrepancies), and one which is very hard to call, nobody really knows long it will take before business can take more than a short term view. Americans should not expect quick service at the US embassy in Jakarta this week. It's closed due to "...credible information of a threat to the embassy complex...". Identity crisis: If Australia and NZ want to become members of the ASEM (Asia Europe Meeting), "...then they would have to join on the European side of the organization..." blustered Malaysian foreign minister Syed Hamid Albar at the weekend - "..Australia and New Zealand have first of all to decide that they are Asians..", Which of course brings up the prickly question of "What is an Asian?". One surmises that such a descriptor would be based on physical geography, and the large Asian communities in the two countries concerned including those at top levels in business, government and public administration. One would hope that it does not include an unwillingness to talk straight to your neighbors and go behind their back instead, nor a tendency to toss your political opponents into jail. Who shot the Sheriff? Mahathir of course is sick of "...kritikal kangaroos...". Says the good Doc in reference to Australia "...It is a small nation in terms of numbers and it should behave like a small nation and not be a teacher...". Supposedly this comes in the wake of a quote attributed to OZ PM John Howard that "Australia should be the sheriff of Asia". Just about all the world has accepted that Howard was the victim of misquotation, just as Mahathir is so often. Mahathir however seems to be the only one in the world not to have read the retractions from the original sources. But then again, if he only reads the Malaysian newspapers, it is no surprise. Mahathir was still promoting this self-serving spin in his Manuchi newspaper column 4 months after the fact. We also wonder why Dr Mahathir takes it on himself to espouse the "Malaysian way" as a model of democracy and Islamist civilization, and take on the role as spokesman for the third world in his frequent overseas trips, while Malaysia attracts the same epithet. Good ideas can come from any avenue, not just the strongest and biggest - a reality that has at least dawned on some Malaysian businesses, if not - curiously - the PM himself...
Symbolizing the triumph of light over darkness, Deepavali is traditionally celebrated by the lighting of earthenware lamps outside huts from the capital cities to the most provincial of small villages. Nowadays however, it is celebrated by more modern forms of lights, especially in urban centers. Firecrackers will keep us all awake mid week, and no doubt there will be lots of Bollywood on the tellie - plenty of young maidens dancing around trees chased by handsome guys in floral shirts. More about Deepavali here, but in the meantime, Happy Deepavali All!
The more sensitive of Malaysians however felt that the statement at least - was aimed at them. More level heads in Malaysia however like former Diplomat Ghazali and military intelligence chiefs came out with public statements soothing concerns and emphasizing that war with Singapore was an "...almost zero..." possibility. Indeed unstated in all newspaper reports both from Singapore and Malaysia, perhaps in the cause of neighborly relations but more likely because the possibility is far more real, is the real concerns for Singapore are of incursions from the South, West and East in the medium to long term, rather than the North. For a fractious, and poverty-ridden Indonesia of 200 Million, still highly influenced by a passionate undisciplined military with a tendency to run amok, is a far greater threat to a small Chinese-dominated island of 4 million. Indonesia aside, statements from a Malaysian minister yesterday may well say more about Malaysia than Singapore. Defense Minister Datuk Seri Najib Adbul Razak was quoted as saying "..Being a small country, it's understandable for Singapore to have a fortress mentality...". Fair enough... But he may well have been talking from more personal experience as a key member of the Malaysian political élite when he stated.. "...Singapore needs an enemy, real or imaginary to ensure the continuous support of its people. Thus they have resorted to creating a bogeyman...". Better he have stuck to the old saying - Those in glass houses shouldn't fire off missiles..." Lee is not alone in failures in attempting to use satirical humour in Malaysia to decrease tension. Foreigners, especially from the West often get into severe air panas by attempting to inject humour into presentations and speeches. For while Malaysians are known world wide for their easy-going friendly good humour, it is easy to step over the line, especially on their own turf where they are used to more formal relationships between guests and hosts. While in Thailand, almost everyone knows that any form of lightheartedness in reference to the King and Royalty is taboo, in Malaysia it is best to avoid any form of satire or witty asides. Many Malaysians are quick to take offence at comments that elsewhere are seen as humourous ice-breakers.
For instance, Indonesian President Gus Dur is still living down his off-the-cuff quip last year that it was impossible to see Malaysian ministers because they were always on the golf course. Apart from the fact that a real smart man would have therefore gone to the golf course, his mistake was to under-estimate Malaysian sensitivities. Satire and wit is very uncommon in Malaysia - their form of humour is much more direct and transparent. And when Malaysians attempt wit, from the PM down, it is often in the lowest form as Oscar Wilde would have it - sarcasm - maybe due to the surfeit of American sitcoms on the local tellie. The gentle put down, used elsewhere to emphasize the shared fundamental humanity in a repartee or discussion to raise the level of respect for both sides, is often interpreted in Malaysia as a sign of disrespect. Best advice? ...Study the Malaysian earthy, more formal and straightlaced sense of humour when you get here.. from government speeches to the home grown cartoonists like Lat, the rollicking delightful "Kampung Boy", and others... It's a unique, direct and enjoyable form of the art. ...and leave the smarty-pants witticisms for elsewhere.
Quote of the Day: "...Western diplomacy idolizes only strength, like a pack of dogs fighting over a bitch in heat: whichever is stronger gets to mount. It is better for ASEAN to follow Razak's (Tun Razak, father of Modern Malaysia) thinking, that is you don't want pain, then get away from the cause (as in the Malay nursery rhyme, "enjit-enjit semut siapa sakit naik atas")..." Malaysian veteran politician and diplomat Tan Sri Ghazali Shafie commenting on the importance of ASEAN as a means to forge and maintain friendly ties between ASEAN countries - (Malaysian Sun Friday). Food for the Mind: We have already commented on Asia Source, the fine source of information on Asian economics, politics and news in the past. Diane Ruengsorn kindly dropped a note to us letting know of their new resource Asia Business Today - "...a good starting point for Asian business issues...". they have the smarts to link to us, so they must be a good site!.. Food for the Stomach: (Well it IS the weekend)... A joint venture between the US-based Asia Society and Citibank, Asia Source has been very busy, also launching a new site Asia Food. According to Kendall Sumner, the site is not so much a resource on the economics and business of food, but a site to get Asian expat's mouths watering and woks heating up, - "...AsiaFood provides visitors with over 500 recipes and feature a variety of Asian cooking methods, food, ingredients, and much more based on world-renowned-expert Charmaine Solomon's Encyclopedia of Asian Food...". Perhaps one of the brightest spots on the Malaysian horizon is Marina Mahathir, daughter of the boss, and most well known at this stage for the extremely difficult and touchy job of heading Malaysia's AIDS council. Despite the social welfare type image, Marina Mahathir has the substance and intelligence to go far. (...And remember you read it here first, just as you first heard about Gus Dur long before he hit the headlines...) Just to give you an idea of how difficult her job is, the head of the Education Board in response to reports this week that AIDS education in schools was lacking, commented that it was "...not such a big deal...", and that it would really only apply to blood transfusion cases. While there is a chance that talking about condoms and such may only encourage the little blighters, the far greater evil is to lose the chance to save lives. For in today's world it's increasingly not what you know that hurts you, but what you don't know...and symptomatic of Malaysia's greater malaise - an education system which has still not made the jump from selectively providing information that all must believe, to providing all the information AND the skills for students to tell right from wrong themselves. Not much good educating a new breed of Scientists and Technologists, if all die from AIDS after late night visits to Bukit Bintang and similar areas, or any of the substantial number of knock shops masquerading as Health Clubs and Karaoke Bars in supposedly vice-free Malaysia.
Much gnashing of teeth and long faces among Malaysian aviation circles yesterday as British Airways announced they were cancelling their 5 days a week direct flights from UK to the new Kuala Lumpur International Airport. Many were surprised that BA actually increased their flights upon the opening of the new airport, and at the time it was heralded as a positive portent for KLIA's mission of becoming a South East Asian air hub. Business Realities prevailed however. The KL/London route has lost money for years. Still there is now a good opportunity for any entrepreneurial types who may want to work with Malaysia to establish a profit making route taking advantage of Malaysia's enormous tourism potential. A red-letter day for the Philippines yesterday as popular opposition party figure and Vice President Gloria Macapangal Arroyo resigned from the cabinet following the turning up of the old blow torch on Erap Estrada on allegations of payoffs from gambling interests. Add to this that the revered Cardinal Sin and the council of 75 Roman Catholic priests also urged Estrada to resign yesterday saying "...he had lost the moral ascendancy to govern..." ...And all this as the Philippines is suffering from the travails of it's continuing war against Muslim separatists and kidnappers in the South and East. The Peso and the stock market should be expected to continue their falls of yesterday, and a Philippines that has become the laughing stock of Asia, may well be forced to review it's leadership. Estrada was swept into power on the back of his movie star status as champion of the oppressed by millions of ordinary people to whom TV and the cinema is their main escape from reality. Behind the scenes Estrada just had too many mates to pay off who got him into power - from top businessmen to the gambling underworld. A case of reality finally prevailing over fantasy. And talking of fantasy... The Malaysian government controlled New Straits Times newspaper, known affectionately in these parts as the "The New Mahathir Times", continues to lose ground to English language competitors both in the improving Sun newspaper, on the Internet, and a new business focused paper - The Edge, which at least try to present some semblance of objectivity. The NST, like their owners, badly misread the intelligence of Malaysians. Despite this you still take a double take when you read some of the opinions expressed by NST columnists. This gem from columnist Kassim Ahmad, within a laudatory assessment of Mahathir's UK lecture tour was published yesterday... "...The Anglo-American financier oligarchy is (so) gripped by panic at the looming inevitable collapse of their system that they are prepared to risk a Third World War to stop the collapse..." The double edged sword of Globalization: While Asia has certainly weathered the crisis, continued growth is stop-start. The great saviour of Asia during 97-99 was strong growth overseas especially in the US. With devalued currencies, exporting, especially in the manufacturing sector, provided a lifeline for countries such as Singapore, Malaysia and to a lesser extent South Korea and Thailand. The paradox of course is that while Globalization is held out as the "immoral cause" of the crisis by certain high profile Asian leaders, it was the very same thing that saved them. Union leaders in the US were very quick to realise that cheap imports from Asia were degrading their own value, creating an unholy alliance of unionists, Marxists and developing country leaders for the anti economic orthodoxy cause, "...sleeping in the same bed but having very different dreams..". Now with serious doubts about continued US growth, Asian countries that were able to avoid the pain of major restructuring in the past couple of years by relying on soft exports, are inexorably being brought to account. China has been a solid exception to the latest hiccups, where growth continues at a fast rate, despite there being more losers than winners at this early stage, both internally and among foreign investors. According to AFP, "...China's leaders have pledged to double economic growth by 2010 and laid out the bones of a five year plan to allow market forces a bigger role in the economy...". That's the good news. The bad news is that analysts are getting edgy about how it will be achieved. According to Dong Tao, Senior Economist with Credit Suisse First Boston, "... the most important thing over the next decade is not income growth but structural changes like bank restructuring, reform of SOE's (state owned enterprises) and entry into the WTO...". Expect also a rocky road after China enters the WTO, featuring a wave of redundancies and corporate failures amidst the obvious advantages.
Three years ago the APMF was accused by the "...world's leading Web site for Global Investors..." (sic) of putting a "happy talk spin" on the Asia crisis. Here we are 3 years down the track and the initial crisis has receded right within the time span we predicted. We looked for that recalcitrant site for about an hour last night... and just couldn't find it... At least we can still keep talking. Sweet it may be - but street reality it is as well... A new crisis looms. Asia Crisis Revisited. Less dramatic for sure, but far more substantial than the capricious union of factors that caused its precursor. Stock Markets in the last 2 months are not so much jittery as just plain plummeting. South Korean reform seems moribund as unions and the ultimate power of the chaebols kick in to look after their interests. Japan - the great white hope of the Asia-One proponents remains a sick elephant which should be responding to treatment but still can't quite find the energy to get up and move. Hong Kong is having problems with the Chief Executive. Indonesia has first to sort out their own power bases and unify before any sensible business growth is possible. Malaysia keeps on scaring investors with curious last minute decisions ala Time Engineering/SingTel, despite other great news such as industrial output increasing by 18.7% in August on an annual basis and strong GDP forecasts. Business still needs to be convinced that the Malaysian leadership cares more about Malaysia as a whole than their own self-preservation. Even the great winner from the Asian crisis - Singapore - has suffered worrying setbacks recently including a falling stock market. Thailand's currency and stock market is going backwards, due in small part to increasing consternation of the outcome of the upcoming election - a more of the same Democrat Administration or a Thaksin led Thai Rak Thai powered by bought-off talent from other parties. Thai politicians shift teams faster than English league footy players, reinforcing to their constituencies that the Thai political system is less about political beliefs than the (once mighty) Baht. Thai Rak Thai? ...Bulldust! ...more like Thai Rak Baht. Again, we risk the sharp tongues of our fellow analysts, especially those who analyse the region from afar, by reinforcing that Crisis Revisited will not be as dramatic and glamorous as our previous 1997 crisis. We will not see markets plunging much further in the short term. The crisis we have at present is far too insidious to give itself away by displaying too much blood and guts like last time. Yes the 97-99 crisis is over, but it is not back to what it used to be. The bubble decade of the late 70's and early 80's was an aberration, just like the 3 year crisis, the reasons spelled out in detail in our columns over the last 6 years. We will never have it that good again. Yet many are assuming we will. Remember that you have to be over 35 to 40 to boast a working life that included significant experience of pre-bubble times. That is less than 50% of the workforce. The others only remember a time when salary rises were automatic, and when money appeared from nowhere on the whims of foreign investors who had little where else to invest and saw our labour rates in particular as attractive. Like pre-bubble decade times, but magnified by the new factor of globalization, success now will only come from harder work, competitive advantage, increasing efficiencies, decreased waste, and most of all - Substance rather than Face. (The full Asia market update will be available from Asia Market Research dot Com on 14th October) ...(Eds...)
In KL's Chinatown, I can still get a haircut under a brolly outside, sitting in a chair next to a battered wall, cracked mirror hanging on a rusty nail. I can still buy my daily newspapers from the Indian gent's trestles who grabs a bit of rope, cleverly designed to lower an old green Milo tin, in which he keeps his change. I can get my Tim Sum down the end of the road where my bill is still toted up by abacus. I can still buy Strepsils in that comforting tin, the lid of which is just about impossible to lever off. My Kway Teow man has been there for years, serving up fresh Kway Teow with fresh cockles, and I can get Malaysian style Satay (a poor imitation of the real Satay served in Indonesia which has far bigger chunks of meat) from my mate Abdullah just down from the old Rex cinema still holding out with those old canvas movie ads. The aroma from the corn lady's stand is impossible to leave behind without purchasing a cob, and the indigenous Ramli Burger, judiciously wrapped in a fried egg to make it a "Ramli Special" at $2.50, is also a favourite. And just to top it all off, I still get ripped off by buying from the fruit stands with the wonky scales, and wandering down the wet market with caged chickens waiting for their last whirl. But best of all, they all have a friendly smile in recognition - no matter how long you have been away. It's an environment not unfamiliar to locals from the "kampungs" (villages), but it is vibrant and inspiring to those brought up in the West. Yet all things must pass... Yes, global brands have invaded our Chinatown with impunity. Even more burger and fried chicken franchises have surfaced in the last 6 months, and now the ultimate indignity... one of those over-priced trendy up market coffee houses, designed for people with too much Ringgit and too little sense, has opened up, crowding out my newspaper stall. The franchisee's must be betting on KL yuppies giving up their disdain of Chinatown and making the trip from trendy Bangsar and Bukit Bintang. I hear you can buy a coffee from the new shop for around 10 Ringgit - that's about 10 times the cost of the open-air brew. Still the old rules apply. Thankfully the new arrivals all come with aircon. And you can be assured that the best stuff remains as always - available outside... Not quite sure of some of the economic terms thrown around in our articles and columns? The Internet Economist provides tutorials on Internet economic resources, and how to use the Internet to learn about economics. You may also be interested in a new paper on Aspects of Global Economic Integration: Outlook for the Future from the US National Bureau of Economic Research. (PDF format). Globalization is proving painful for Asian economies and business, but understanding how to work within the new economic reality will provide competitive advantage.
There is a natural inclination for people to want to go about major change using what I call the "decide and implement model", i.e. somebody studies something and then gets the go-ahead from somebody else – that's the "decide" part. The "implement" part involves assigning responsibility, coming up with timetables and resources allocated and then following up with paperwork and meetings. As a mechanism for basically driving major change that seems to work terribly poorly. It doesn't set the stage well enough and it doesn't follow through well enough. It's a mechanism designed for small changes in a steady state, yet it is used constantly. (Personal Relationships) are important in the sense that hierarchy alone and formal position alone are not enough. Formal position doesn't "connect" people enough; it just connects people up and down a particular hierarchy and that isn't a world of interdependence. You need other kinds of relationships running horizontally and between people in different departments and divisions or offices to be able to make the whole thing work. The most typical examples of that are what you call "personal relationships". Someone's telling BIG PORKIES: The Malaysian PM loves bashing Australia (they're smaller than the US), but the ethnic Indian OZ ambassador to Malaysia must be cringing in his seat waiting for THE phone call from on high. Just when the Malaysian élite could sit back confident that the great majority of Malaysians had forgotten about Anwar, Australian TV's Foreign Correspondent broadcast a program Tuesday night that they say "...presents compelling evidence that the trial of Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was based on fabricated charges resulting from a deliberate high-level conspiracy to oust him from office...". Friends of Hari Ini who saw it, report that it mainly went over old ground. Allegations of police extracting confessions with violence and threats, and Malaysian government officers fabricating evidence were all in the trial transcripts published daily in Malaysian newspapers, and ignored by many Malaysians, confused about who was lying and who was actually telling the truth. Malaysians learned less about right and wrong than what happens to those who piss off the boss. They did extract a tittilating tit-bit however, in an interview with former UMNO official, Raja Kamarrudin, who said - "My duty is to give propaganda to speak to the UMNO people that Anwar is not fit to be the Prime Minister" Mahathir has a big problem with the free press, accusing the international press of giving Malaysia the rough end of the pineapple. Yet, the free press in Australia finally also extracted a confession from the Australian government, after almost 6 years of investigation, that they knew about the Indonesian invasion of Timor well before it occurred and failed to protect those in the firing line demonstrating that the press can give it their own as well as others... And if a free press did not exist in the US, would we have ever known of the Republican burglary at the Watergate? The free press does have it's uses...
Now, in the same month that we featured the wasteful and inefficient airport limo service monopoly, the Malaysian cabinet voted to allow city taxis to ply this lucrative route. Should also put a stop to the enthusiastic amateurs with the lowered voices at the arrival gates offering trips in their own personal Protons. But just as this particularly recalcitrant Mat Salleh is running out of things to complain about re the airport, the Minister for Big Flashy Bow ties, Culture, Arts and Tourism, Datuk Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir, announced yesterday that he is set on turning KLIA into "an international shopping paradise". It all sounds very Singaporish... While it is granted that retail sales are the major tourism revenue earner for many countries (even more so than accommodation and travel-specific sectors) it is hardly the sort of thing that will attract international travelers. And in the meantime, people that use airports for actually getting from one place to the other continue to have to tend with longer frustrating walks past over-priced boutiques before they get to the relative sanctuary of the departure lounge. For it seems airports have adopted the vicious shopping center design scam of placing elevators all over the place so you have to walk past lotsa other shops before finding what you want. If it was up to me, I would put all the shops in one area so the shoppers can go there without getting in the way of people wanting to catch a plane. ...Bit like the smoking rooms now.... We hope the minister will achieve more success that his briefing to retail heavies on the Great Malaysian Shopping Sale earlier this year when nobody turned up. Hint: As any Management 101 student will know, if you involve affected stakeholders in making a decision, they just may be more interested in implementing it... To be fair, Malaysia's KLIA offers the most competitive prices of neighboring airports for everything from food to cigs. Nevertheless, the day when a Singaporean or Brit is going to say - "...I'll be away for a while dear.. I'm just popping down to the KL airport to do a spot of shopping..." ...is the day I'll eat my turban...
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