Daily commentary on Asian business strategy, management, market research, marketing tips, business prospects, economic and culture news. Market prospects. Economic prospects. Short reviews, links, advice, satire and topical coverage for international and Asian managers doing business in Asia.

The Hari Ini column is available daily on the Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine home page. Sure.. go there now for more of the same. At least it's fresher...

This page contains one month of the archives.

The Hari Ini column documents off-the cuff comments, very odd spots, unsubstantiated rumours, misinterpretations, cruel innuendo, limp jokes, dodgy links, tips lacking in credibility, and other material very roughly related to Asian business, marketing, management, culture, politics, economics and why the earth is round.

Some of the items emerge into sections later on; some are contributed by email or word of mouth by friends of the forum, columnists, editorial advisors, and the Chao Phraya River Rat. ..Most of it just ends up here...

Basically it means we can at least comment on happenings that we wouldn't otherwise have the time to.

"Hari Ini" means "Today" in both Malaysian and Indonesian.

..Which means that everything on this page is already outta date...

As the masthead suggests, this column also includes all the news that doesn't fit..

It also means we can add some lightheartedness and CNN type shallowness to our otherwise more serious content. As CNN proves, such content sells...

Mostly the column just reflects the mood of the editors on the day, and gives a potted summary of key issues in the region. If you want it to reflect your mood as well, email us contributions at chiyo@apmforum.com.

Chiyo Hyiuiki (Webmaster, and on behalf of the editors)

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Thursday November 29th 2001

It's a sad story for Japan today as Standard and Poors followed Fitch in downgrading the Japanese economy. Not only that but S&P also out their banks on credit alert. Bad economic news seems to come daily with consumer confidence doing no better than in the US where a decrease was recorded for the fifth consecutive month. However, some reports are coming through that some East Asian consumers are indeed spending up - mainly rich ones in Japan and South Korea. Starbucks Coffee Japan for example is moving towards it's second profitable year in Japan, announcing a good interim profit a few days back. For a country where tea, rather than coffee is the traditionally preferred drink, Starbucks Japan now boasts over 300 stores and two thirds market share in the premium retail coffee market. A yuppie coffee recovery is too much to ask for however, as the more substantial policy/business reforms required for Japanese recovery are proving hard to achieve. .::.discuss.::.

Big news today was the arrest of Tommy Soeharto in Jakarta. After months of a search resembling a Keystone cops episode, Tommy is in custody held on charges of illegal arms possession and murder. Indonesians want to know how Tommy's judge was assassinated in this car a few months back, and why corruption charges against him were suddenly dropped. Best known for being the previous owner of Lambourgini or maybe more as an example of a spoilt kid who never grew up, Tommy Soeharto reveled in displaying his wealth Eva Peron style during an economic crisis that increased poverty in Indonesia substantially. It took a lot to beat sister Tutu's "let them eat rabbit" pronouncement when told that many Indonesians could not afford chicken - but Tommy aced her on many occasions. Expect fun and games as Megawati struggles to prove the credibility of the Indonesian justice system against Tommy's mates. More tommorrow on another son of the privileged political family up North in Thailand, who is "doing a Tommy" while evading arrest for the alleged murder of a policeman in a Bangkok nightclub. .::.discuss.::.

The Strategic Direct Investor has useful articles relating to international business strategy news. At last peek, several articles on China and European companies entering Asia.

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Monday November 26th 2001

Asia Pacific stock markets are booming today with Japan around 2.5% up and South Korea extending their significant gains last week by around 3% again this Monday (10am Hong Kong time). There is considerable support for the view that South Korea, in the economic doldrums along with other major Asian markets such as Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, will lead Asia out of the export-drought recession. Much is dependent on a continued turn around in US markets, but there is just a hint of a smile on the face of the tigers this morning. .::.discuss.::.

On the down side, Asian tourism figures are reflecting the broad world-wide downturn in the industry since the terrorist attacks on the US further assaulted an airline industry already in crisis. New Zealand in-bound tourism is around 20% down on last year's figures. Reports from Bali Indonesia, one of the region's key tourism markets describe low hotel occupancies and significant drops in tourism industry revenues. Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines are all suffering as well. Tourism is the world's largest industry and critical to many newly industrialised nations suffering from a downturn in maufacturing due to the worldwide recession. Hong Kong has just recovered from it's previous tourism crisis following the Asian economic crisis, and hotel rates have climbed up in the last 12 months. Follow daily reports of Hong Kong tourism from the Tourism in Hong Kong weblog, a colorful personal review of the industry in Hong Kong. .::.discuss.::.

The Internet may have come later to Asia, and Australia was one of the first to embrace the new communication medium. However these days Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Korea leave Australia way beyond the black stump in terms of internet use and take up. Just one example - the online research company Global Reviews found that Australian Airlines lagged behind their Asian counterparts in their on-line offerings. South East Asian airlines ranked the best with Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific topping the list with score of 78% and 79% respectively. The best Australasia could manage was 70% (Air New Zealand) followed by Qantas. .::.discuss.::.

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Thursday November 22nd 2001

The King is dead - Long live the King: Today is a public holiday in Malaysia as the nation mourns the passing of the current Malaysian king - or Agong. Yesterday, TV and radio broadcasts suspended programing to break to readings from the Koran. As we entered Kuala Lumpur today from Bangkok, flags were at half mast, and many streets were closed for processions. Cable TV is off the air until 6pm, the KLSE stock market and many other entertainment centres are closed.

Mahathir has eroded away the political power of the royalty and Sultans for many years now, in line with Malaysia's increasing, but stuttering democratization - a policy meeting the approval of the broad Rakyat of Malaysians. Their immunity from prosecution was removed in 1993, and their ability to veto government bills in 1983. Now, the Malaysian monarchy is mainly ceromonial. Mahathir still visits the King to call an election and install cabinets but the process is a formality.

The title of King of Malaysia is rotated every 5 years among sitting Sultans in each of Malaysia's nine states. The former King Salahuddin was the Sultan of Selangor.

A casual visitor to Malaysia will be forgiven for not knowing that Malaysia has a royalty - the most obvious point of connection being a framed photograph of the current King next to that of the Prime Minister in most hotel lobbies, especially in provincial areas. Reverance and respect for the King is not as visible as in neighbouring Thailand or Cambodia. There will be no medium to long-term effect on Malaysian business, though the stock market did fall yesterday on the news, but quickly recovered to an even higher level than the open due to the end of speculation on the King's demise.

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Thursday November 8th 2001

A focus group survey on beer drinking habits conducted by Orient Pacific Century Asian Branding and Market Research in Thailand a few years back, demonstrated the key importance of "face" to the Asian consumer. While social drinkers were likely to consume world brands such as Heineken while drinking out, there were just as likely to consume cheaper and/or local brands at home. While consuming a global brand in front of peers increased one's own perceived prestige, international bearing, and modernity, many drank the low priced Chang brand (3 big bottles for 100 Baht up-country) at home. As one said, "You drink Chang to get drunk".

In today's hard times internationally, supermarkets region-wide are reporting increasing home bottle sales of discount and cheaper brands, and nightspots and restaurants are reporting a decrease in the consumption of premium beer and whisky on trade. Fosters Brewing, still best known internationally for it's Australian beer, is still happy with it's foray into the wine market, part of a move to diversify into the broader food and beverage market. But even Foster's Brewing is reporting that more wine is now being consumed at home. And in Japan, the current economic situation has hit consumers hard, with discounts reigning supreme. Add to that, recent significant tax rises in Thailand and Malaysia for example have increased the cost for alcohol related products. The wine tax in Thailand, even as a non-Muslim country, is amongst the most prohibitive world wide, possibly in part to protect the massive beer and local spirits market.

More and more, consumers are looking for value for money. The anecdotal evidence from restaurant and bar managers here in Malaysia and from reports in Singapore and Thailand is that consumers are not changing from premium to cheaper brands - more that they are drinking or comsuming less of the stuff, or even worse, just not coming at all. It's a stay-at-home trend.. Better that than risking loss of face in the social networking arena.

Malaysia is living more up to its name and Chinese Malaysians may be starting to feel elbowed out, with the latest Malaysian census showing that Malays and indigeneous Malaysians made up 65.1% of the 23.27 million population, up 2.5% from the last census in 1991. The proportion of ethnic Chinese dropped to 26% from 28.1% ten years back, and ethnic Indians to 7.7%, down from 7.9%.

Muslims now make up 60.4% of the population (Malays are Muslim from birth with strong social disincentives for conversion), up from 58.6% in 1991, followed by Buddhists (19.2%)- (most Chinese are Buddhists), and Christians (9.1%) (predominantly Chinese converts), and Hindus (predominantly Indian).

Malay families tend to be much larger than Chinese families, being more rural based and having better financial incentives for larger families.

The demographic shift in Malaysia is likely to continue, kick started by Mahathir's New Economic Policy (NEP), developed to empower the indigeneous Malays economically and financially at a time when the business and financial skills of latter Chinese immigrant entrepreneurs were threatening to monopolize wealth and then inevitably political power. Back then, racial conflict threatened to rip apart the newly independent Malaysia. Now an entrenched but sometimes delicate balance is maintained between the political and economic power of each race. Together with programs to encourage Malay entreprenuership and ownership, the theory is that the Chinese should be happy to be make money within a system that limits their ability to run Malaysia politically. Mahathir, himself a Malay of Pakistani origin, is unhappy with the progress of the Malays through the 2 decades of the NEP, particularly in the context of the rising support for more radical policies for the empowerment of Malays led by the opposition PAS party, recently calling Malays "lazy" and "ungrateful".

Such is the significance of the current battle for the hearts of minds of Malaysia's increasing Malay (and Muslim) population.

Thai Airways gets even suckier: Thai Airways International is still hanging there in Branding Asia's Great Asian Brands Survey, but that is surely on the weight of it's classy and attentive cabin service, no matter whether it's First, Business or Cattle class. And respondents to our Best Asian Airlines Survey tend to give Thai a good rating.

On other criteria - it "sucks" - as Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra so indelicately put it almost a year back now. Those who know the basics of how a jet engine works would probably breathe a sigh of relief, but Thaksin's was less an engineering concern rather than a business one. Some lack of grace, however, was understandable given that an aircraft he was about to board a few weeks before he made the statement was split in half by a bomb half an hour before he was set to board at Bangkok International Airport.

Like almost all national airlines, but particularly those in Asian semi and developed countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan, the pride attached to a national airline means they are not subject to the normal stringencies of profitability and business acumen, inevitably resulting in pampered and loss making businesses.

For many years Thai Airways must win the prize in a crowded field for the most benevolent airline, providing massive discounts for staff, families, distant relatives, and the well connected. Yesterday, new chairman Virabongsa Ramangkura announced that Thai Airways International is owed a massive 12 billion Baht (around 2.7 billion USD), and that he intends to address the "leakage" immediately. Overseas offices are "hoarding" money and unwilling to send it back, he says, and there was a 1.15 billion baht annual advertising and promotion budget overseen solely by the President, "without cross-checks from any other party".

The reform of the privilege and kick-back driven Thai Airways International is a high priority for Thaksin, who sacked the whole board a few months back, and Virabongsa's dedication to weeding out inefficiencies and building a long term business plan is congruent with Thaksin's management style - the Thai government still owning over 90% of the airline prior to reducing its stake to around 60% in a future public offering.

The blue-chip Baht power of the Thai Airways International name is reflected in the relatively low salary for the President of Bt180,000 a month, balanced by high competition for the post. Enough said...

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Tuesday November 6th 2001

Singapore PAP's massive victory last weekend was expected. After all it hasn't been the first time in recent elections that the government won the election even before campaigning began due to the opposition contesting less than the number of seats required for a victory. With the small nation state suffering their first recession for years, and a downturn one of the worst in the region, one would think that there would be some fall-out. Such did not come to pass, because Lee's vision of a state governed by the Confucian ideal of a small élite of learned scholars is well on the way to being achieved, genetic engineering or not... Lee's successors are almost exclusively smart, clean, and accomplished strategists. A pluralist, politically involved democracy it ain't, but while Singaporeans continue to have some of the highest standards of living in the world, they are happy to leave politics and social engineering to the government, and enjoy the fruits of a modern, secure, comfortable lifestyle.

Forget the "New Poor" bleatings of the opposition's poorly conceived campaign. The middle class has still not really felt pain... that will come as layoffs continue, and significantly, Singaporeans enjoy such a relatively high standard of living that most can afford to weather it with support from family networks until what they see as the inevitable occurs - a sharp return to continued growth and wealth.

In the meantime Singapore continues implementing their smart strategies for a country with no natural resources and dependent on the outside world. SingTel this week bought aggressively into Telkomsel, continuing a policy of investing aggressively in Indonesia. It is a business strategy criticised by many with a short term view, but clearly a smart one for a Singapore that needs to spread their risk regionally, and that can afford to wait around for the inevitable long term rise of Indonesia and make a killing on a smart investment. ..And that's an investment that goes far beyond a financial concern.

Down South however, the result of the Australian election next week is less predictable. Despite the ruling Liberal/National-Country Party coalition announcing the polls in an international environment of insecurity and return to traditional values which will always favour a sitting conservative government, and after PM Howard's popular decision to deny a Room at the Australia Inn to Afghan refugees smuggled to it's shores by pirate entrepreneurs, opinion polls conflict in their predictions. Apart from the ANZ Jobs survey showing a drop in employment, the Australian economy has proved remarkably resilient to both the Asian crisis and the current worldwide downturn. Most show Labor catching up fast to government support, and the latest Bulletin poll, shows Labor three percentage points ahead.

Howard's government is characterised by pragmatic isolationism. He knows his electorate and is in no mind to re-educate. He insists that Australia should not see themselves as aligned to the Asian bloc, as was the Hawke and Keating view, but as a member of the "international community". Nice sentiments for sure, but countries are not going to go anywhere fast without substantial economic, trading and security alignments with their geographic neighbours. ...And while the Australians like to see themselves as independent, self reliant types, the future globalized world controlled by massive trading and policy blocs such as the EU, NAFTA, the G7, and yes, even ASEAN if they ever get their act together, Australia may find themselves shunted into the distance and ignored.

And Australia is a small fish in a big pond internationally and can easily be ignored by the real power brokers of the "international community" to which he aspires. Ohmae predicted many years ago that the era of the Nation State was behind us and that regional power blocs will move the next (now this) century. Is Australia really listening? At least we hope that Howard takes a glance at his Oxford Atlas soon.

Our prediction? Howard will be returned, and Australia will stay as the land of the lotus eaters for some time yet.

While Asian markets plummeted down with US markets following September 11th, their recovery has not matched that of the latter. Predominant is the increasing economic malaise in the Muslim dominated South East Asian states. Nobody really wants to talk about the exposure that moderate Muslim states face from the aftermath of September 11th, yet our warnings of 6 weeks ago are starting to be borne out. Stock markets are influenced by a variety of factors of course, yet Malaysia and Indonesia, home to over 40% of the world's Muslims have seen their losses extend while US and Australasian markets are on the upward recovery mode. Singapore, dwarfed population wise - if not economically - between these two Muslim dominated states, and beset by other problems of exposure to trade downturns and their high relative cost of living and doing business is also in the doldrums. See a comparative stock market analysis here.

We can only restate our early predictions - Moderate Muslim nations will come under increasing pressure from their own extremist fundamentalist Muslim groups, the stigma of being a Muslim nation (while totally unwarranted), and the remote possibility that Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia will suffer collateral damage in the co-alition's so far shotgun approach to hunting down terrorists all make business investors, both local and international, think twice.

Not so curious that the ASEAN + 3 meeting held in Brunei Darussalam this week saw a joint statement released denouncing the terror attacks on the US but stopping short of even acknowledging the most significant international event for ASEAN at present - the US led anti-terror coalition's invasion of Afghanistan. Both Indonesia and Malaysia, sitting on a powder keg of Muslim sentiment locally, have denounced the invasion, but other countries like the Philippines (with a major Muslim separatist problem of their own) have supported the invasion.

What makes ASEAN so toothless of course is the principle of non-interference in each other's affairs and a preference for closed door meetings of the elite rather than open debate. Most vocal proponent of such measures is Malaysia's Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who sees this as promoting unity amongst a very diverse grouping and reflecting Asian values. Thailand's Thaksin, an admirer of the Mahathir style, quietly backs him up. Singapore's Goh, quietly, does not give a sh*t about ASEAN - direct bilateral relationships are a much higher priority for the economically powerful Singapore, much to Mahathir's chagrin. Megawati, president of by far the biggest country in ASEAN is new, political neutered at home, and has far too much to worry about. The Philippines' Arroyo is a newcomer too, and ASEAN hates newcomers getting outta line and talking too much before they get re-educated. Such a policy has major advantages for sitting governments and also for short term stability, but in the meantime ASEAN remains a toothless (former) tiger.

Friend of the forum Frank Richter, Asia Director of the World Economic Forum, announces that the World Economic Forum successfully hosted the 10th East Asia Economic Summit earlier last week. A full report is available from the World Economic Forum Web site link above as well as an editorial from the South China Morning Post.