Daily commentary on Asian business strategy, management, market research, marketing tips, business prospects, economic and culture news. Market prospects. Economic prospects. Short reviews, links, advice, satire and topical coverage for international and Asian managers doing business in Asia.

The Hari Ini column is available daily on the Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine home page. Sure.. go there now for more of the same. At least it's fresher...

This page contains one month of the archives.

The Hari Ini column documents off-the cuff comments, very odd spots, unsubstantiated rumours, misinterpretations, cruel innuendo, limp jokes, dodgy links, tips lacking in credibility, and other material very roughly related to Asian business, marketing, management, culture, politics, economics and why the earth is round.

Some of the items emerge into sections later on; some are contributed by email or word of mouth by friends of the forum, columnists, editorial advisors, and the Chao Phraya River Rat. ..Most of it just ends up here...

Basically it means we can at least comment on happenings that we wouldn't otherwise have the time to.

"Hari Ini" means "Today" in both Malaysian and Indonesian.

..Which means that everything on this page is already outta date...

As the masthead suggests, this column also includes all the news that doesn't fit..

It also means we can add some lightheartedness and CNN type shallowness to our otherwise more serious content. As CNN proves, such content sells...

Mostly the column just reflects the mood of the editors on the day, and gives a potted summary of key issues in the region. If you want it to reflect your mood as well, email us contributions at chiyo@apmforum.com.

Chiyo Hyiuiki (Webmaster, and on behalf of the editors)

Bangkok Thailand: Wednesday May 30th 2001

Indonesia is living on the edge today as parliament seems set to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Wahid today (Wednesday). Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri rejected a power sharing proposal from Wahid Saturday and agreed with her own party (PDIP) yesterday to join most of parliament in pushing for Wahid's impeachment.

At present, supporters of Wahid's East Javanese Muslim rural based party are pouring into Jakarta to show street level support for Wahid, and police are on high alert.

In a further development the Indonesian Attorney General has declared Wahid's innocence of most of the corruption allegations against him. However, the parliament pitch is that allegations of incompetence are enough.

Wahid was turfed into leadership almost two years ago as a compromise candidate when other parties could not countenance the ascension of a woman with less than 100% Muslim credentials as the leader of the country, despite her party receiving the greatest support in elections. It also bought the mainstream power blocks time to regroup for later elections and keep their hands clean from the almost impossible job of delivering Indonesia from economic, and successionist problems.

Wahid in the end is perceived as failing, but, as we have said before, in perhaps one of the world's most difficult job, and at the hands of more ambitious and politically-bloodthirsty parliamentary opponents. His inner circle was politically naive and far too narrow, being picked from long term confidants. At the same time, he continued the commitment to the freedom of the press initiated by Habibie, and dropped various racial based legislation aimed at Chinese Indonesians. Both reforms weakened him politically.

Megawati Sukarnoputri looks to be Wahid's successor, but it may yet be another case of a lamb being led to slaughter. Megawati seems ambivalent about leadership, being retiring in nature, though not short of courage as illustrated by her vocal opposition to Soeharto when such behaviour usually resulted in dire consequences. Behind the scenes, the ambitious Amien Rais plots for his ultimate dream of establishing Indonesia as a Muslim state, while Soeharto's old party Golkar retains much patronage in the military and some well established business sectors. Megawati, like Wahid, draws much popular support, is unarguably the most popular politician in Indonesia, and she also has her own military support. Whether her advisors can provide better support to her than Wahid is an odds-on bet, but whether it is enough to resist becoming eventually a pawn in the game like Wahid, is less bettable.

Again, we have said before that recovery in Indonesia's business environment is still many years away. We doubt that Wahid's and Megawati's opponents could have done, or will do, any better.

Follow breaking news from our various news feeds, or at the Jakarta Post and Tempo Websites.

Tokyo Japan: Monday May 21st 2001

Pass me the bong Khun Thaksin!: It hasn't been a great year for Asian leaders so far. Taiwan's Chen just received his lowest popularity rating ever after a hard first year marked by nuclear facility controversy and more significantly increased tension with China. South Korea's Kim Dae Jong continues to struggle in breaking up the chaebols and continued labor union demands. Malaysian PM Mahathir has lost much Malay support in his application of illusory and outdated Asian values solutions to dissent and opposition. Wahid Abdurrahman in Indonesia is desperately struggling to survive in carrying out perhaps the world's most difficult job surrounded by incompetent mates and ambitious opponents, and Thailand's Thaksin has seen a decrease in popularity while chasing hidden US government bond treasures in caves since his tumultuous victory in January. China's Jiang starts foaming at the mouth and spluttering incoherently whenever anyone mentions Taiwan and Tibet. ..And of course the less said about ex Japanese PM Mori and ex Philippines Pres. Estrada the better.

Which all made the headline from Sunday's Bangkok Post item on Jiang's offer to host an effort with Laos, Myanmar (Burma's) and Thailand's PM to attack the worsening drug problem in the Golden Triangle almost believable. - Four PM's Meet on Drugs. Maybe that accounts for their curious decisions and behaviour of late...

A curious couple: An atheist Marxist and a Muslim anti-communist traded genuflections the weekend before last as the leaders of two developing countries - Castro from Cuba, and Mahathir from Malaysia met for the first time on Malaysian soil. Though miles apart on the political spectrum, and the condition of their people much at variance, their methods in recent times have indeed converged on some key points, and their rhetoric, as evidenced by examining original transcripts of their own speeches, has a lot in common.

Both are "rebels", seasoned in political rhetoric, and both demonstrate a massive gift for communicating and winning the hearts of their poorest people (their political lifeblood) while pragmatically wooing local investors and businessmen. Both suffered and triumphed during revolutions and rebellions against Western colonizers, and have ruled for over 50 years between them, making them the most durable of sitting national leaders. Castro and Mahathir are true political survivors, both claiming to have survived assassination plots against them. Like great business leaders, they have won by knowing their market - in their case their electors, encouraging the perception of common threat, and negating, by various methods, popular opposition before it takes hold.

Both are impressed by each other's achievements in the face of the "evils" of globalization. To them "political correctness" is home grown, not imported from others. Both are still surviving while foreign pundits wrote them off. They remain staunch "believers" living in an age of reason. The actions of both reflect a belief that the means justifies the ends. Both laid out bold plans for economic development, and both like good strategic planners, stick to plans that have substance, rather than changing in the face of current popular sentiment.

Upon reaching the top of the Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, at present the world's highest building, Castro declared that he felt "...closer to heaven...". Castro and Mahathir are both international individualists working in societies which are primarily communalistic. We don't know whether they will eventually succeed in their own visions for their own parts of the world, and indeed only time will tell if they have been correct, or if indeed a more democratic path would afford better advantages for their people in the long run. What we do know is that, in their own patch, they hold the secret of political survival. Heaven can wait.

Those interested in the economics of South Asian nations such as India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal may be interested in the South Asia Network of Economic Research Institutes. Many PDF articles from the over 40 participating economic instututes.

Try Competitive Intelligence Success Stories, providing short summaries of how competitive intelligence can be used to enhance your business startegies. Not much specifically on Asian markets, but good general guidance. The Scout Report for Business and Economics states that "...The site also contains a hyperlinked CI dictionary, an impressive Internet intelligence index, and an introspective intelligence system questionnaire..."

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Monday May 7th 2001

A couple of highly useful new sites for our readers this week courtesy of Matt Ciolek's Asian Studies WWW-Virtual Library:

Singapore news analysis site LittleSpeck.com, is a free, non-profit website providing a Singapore perspective on trends in Singapore and the region. The site covers politics, economy, national development and lifestyle culture, and is edited by Seah Chiang Nee, a Reuters corespondent in South Vietnam (1960-70), News Editor of the Hong Kong Standard (1973-74), Foreign Editor for The Straits Times, Singapore (1974-82), Editor of the Singapore Monitor (1982-85), and columnist for The Star, Malaysia (1986-present).

Asia Pacific Background Briefing from Radio National, Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), Sydney, Australia provides summaries and Full Transcripts (in html, RTF & Word 6.00 formats) of ABC Radio National's weekly investigative documentaries.

Some of the sites contents include: Asia through Australian Eyes; are we getting it right? (8/4/2001); Background Briefing goes to Indonesia (1/4/2001); Fiji: Encore for a Coup (4/2/2001); Xanana Gusmao (19/11/2000); Soeharto's Missing Millions (6/8/2000); China dot Communism (28/5/2000); Doing the Business in East Timor (7/5/2000); Overseas Students in Australia (5/3/2000); Reef Rights [on the Great Barrier Reef] (26/9/1999); Are Asians Racist? (11/7/1999); Bad Blood [on the Morbillivirus] (13/6/1999); A Doctor in East Timor: Diary of an Eyewitness (23/5/1999); A Foreign Student's Story: A Cautionary Tale (7/3/1999); Vietnam: The Renovation Stalls (14/2/1999); Will Vietnam make it? Cambodia: Rebuilding Society (23/8/1998); Global Depression? (26/7/1998); PNG: Stuck In The Middle With Who? (10/5/1998); Red Ships [on Chinese shipping companies] (19/4/1998); Indonesia's Crisis: Unity & Adversity (8/2/1998); Crying Tigers: The Asian Market Meltdown (7/12/1997); Papua New Guinea Drought (9/11/1997); South-East Asia's Currency Crisis - the Miracle in Meltdown? (19/10/1997); Islands Of Debt (31/8/1997); Doing Human Rights in Asia (24/8/1997); Cold Wind from East Timor (27/7/1997); Captured [on the hostages in Irian Jaya] (18/5/1997); Taiwan: The First Chinese Democracy? (27/4/1997); Greater China: Professor Bill Kirby (20/4/1997); Robert Friedland: The King of the Canadian Juniors (6/4/1997); The Future of Hong Kong (16/2/1997); Megawati: Indonesia's Changing Politics (24/11/1996); Managing The Mekong (3/11/1996).

Happy Wesak Day to all our Buddhist friends. Business in Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore is closed today(Monday).

Loose Lips Sink Ships:: The Malaysian stock market's 5% up tick last mid-week, fuelled for most part on the lifting of the 10% tax on expatriating investment portfolio profits, returned into negative territory for the rest of the week, and dived sharply 5% on Friday substantially on rumours that key financial and political figures were meeting at Bank Negara on Friday at 5pm to discuss the currency peg. In the event, no change in policy was announced.

Malaysia's currency is now over valued following falls in the values of currencies in neighbouring and competitive nations, putting at risk a worrying current account deficit and cost competitiveness with other manufacturing hubs in the region. The government has consistently claimed, especially over the past few weeks, that the Ringgit is pegged at a workable level, and that the stability of the currency is good for local business especially.

In the meantime, the local Malaysian English Language New Straits Times newspaper continues to run in reverse black/white lettering spanning the width of the front page about once a week the slogan - "Don't listen to rumours - Don't spread rumours". The revitalization of the old war time slogan is not out of place, if not just a little bit disconcerting. In case you haven't noticed, it's a war for hearts and mind in Malaysia at the moment. Rumours and propaganda continue to fuel this Malaysian war in the limited availability of credible sources of information for the Malaysian rakyat at large.

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Thursday May 3rd 2001

A smile on the face of the tigers: Continuing increases in the US tech based NASDAQ (up 36% since its low in early April) together with further evidence that the economic downturn in the US will not be as severe as expected, and curtain-up positivism in Japan over the election of Koizumi are fuelling optimistic stock markets and currencies on the up side in Asia. The past week has seen increases in almost all major economies.

Even in the Philippines, where President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is registering an emphatic win over pro-Estrada forces who engineered the " ragtag "Masa rebellion" the stock market registered a 3% increase yesterday and is up again today. In Indonesia, despite a second censure of President Abdurrahman Wahid, the Rupiah and stock markets also are on the rise, though foreign investors are still keeping far away.

Significantly, economies which have a high exposure to the tech sector and manufactured exports are showing the greatest promise in the present wave of optimism. Whether the situation is the start of a substantive turnaround is still unknown. The good economic portents have been delivered from outside the region, and there must be a major honeymoon factor in the Japanese turnaround. Internal economic fundamentals in both Japan and East Asia as well as South East Asia remain poor to middling, and these will define the ceiling of the present rally.

You can come back now guys... The biggest stock market winner yesterday was Malaysia, where an almost 5% increase provided a welcome breather for a market moribund for several years apart from a short lived recovery more than 2 years ago. The reason? The Malaysian government lifted its 10% tax on profits repatriated within a year. The Malaysian economy has been gradually liberalised following the imposing of capital controls in the fall out from the Asian financial crisis of 1997/8. All that remains of the unorthodox economic package now is the US currency peg of 3.8 Malaysian Ringgit to the US dollar. At present, the Ringgit is slightly over valued in relation to neighbouring and competing economies, though that may not last long given the direction of Asian currency movements at present.

The Malaysian Patient: PM Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad, previously a medical doctor, invoked the medical model in fighting the Asian financial crisis. He put the critically ill Malaysian economy in isolation, to allow it to recover unencumbered by foreign viruses, bacteria and germs in general. The result was an economy that recovered, and a stock market that performed almost as well as competing economies. But it also has been pampered, and despite the claims that "policies are now in place" to allow the patient to wander around outside the cubicle, we wonder whether resistance has been weakened during the long period in isolation.

Whether foreign investment will aggressively enter back into the Malaysian market is an unknown.

Our view of the potential of Malaysia has many positives, and these relate to competitive advantages held well before it's incubation - an English speaking, multicultural populace, and political stability. (Despite political shenanigans over the same period, and warnings of violence and mayhem, much has been in the form of propaganda to strengthen the position of the political élite. While not in any way optimal, Malaysia does not have the extremes of wealth and poverty typical Indonesia, Philippines and even Thailand necessary to spur a popular revolution. The racial threat has also been over-stressed.) It also retains a dedication to national strategic planning.

On the down side however, it has lost 4 years to Singapore, for example, who have used this time to become more open to a global economy. Malaysia's policies have been defensive rather than offensive. Regardless of the necessity for this approach, Malaysia's battle skills have not been tested in the field of global battle for a long time. At the same time, investors see Malaysia as a very small market, with a political environment willing to embrace political, economic, and social unorthodoxy. It is also seen as sensitive to criticism, whether misguided or correct, reflected in continuing press and opposition censorship. Again, there is an upside to being unorthodox, but it also means that local environmental factors are less predictable and answerable to free market orthodoxy, and therefore a higher risk to long term investments. Recent bail-outs and government involvement in preventing mergers such as SingTel and Time are testament to this. The reality is that there are other markets that are bigger, more profitable, and less risky.

For Malaysia, the strategy has to be to create a high-value dependable niche market, as indeed it is for Singapore, Thailand, and other South East Asian economies. A lot has changed even in four years. China and Vietnam for example are strong competitors as low cost manufacturing centres. India, the second most populated country in the world after China, is a strong competitor in the IT industry. South East Asia has lost some major advantages that created their bubble economy, such as low cost facilities and almost sole claims then to fast growth in the emerging market sector. Eastern Europe and Latin America as well as other Asian economies can now stake a competitive claim. Africa is staking their claims fast. Good relationships to other economies are essential to build on synergies that have been hidden during it's time in isolation - and not only to guys that look and talk the same but also very different economies in the Asia Pacific and beyond where many opportunities exist.

Still, our general analysis is positive - it's welcome back Malaysia to the real world!

Kuala Lumpur Malaysia: Tuesday May 1st 2001

NEWS FLASH: (Tuesday 5:40am Philippine Time) Pro Estrada demonstrators have converged on the Presidential Palace in Manila. So far Presidential policy is one of tolerance, but Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has promised to use force should the situation become threatening. See Raoul's on the street take below from late last night. Warning shots have been fired. Keep up with further breaking Philippines news.

Tha Masa Hit Back: The mass street demonstrations that finally desposed Estrada just 3 months ago was primarily a middle class revolt, and now it is the turn of Erap's power base - the poor and provincial rural workers. But is it really a revolt of the Masa, or are they being manipulated by power brokers? CNBC reported Monday that a coup attempt against the Philippine government failed on the weekend, yet according to APMF man on Manila streets, Raoul, Erap's mates still in power are not giving up that easy.... The raw transcript follows:

Chatted with the EVP of a big international bank today -- he was a prime mover at EDSA II, one of the first to arrive at the EDSA shrine to do a prayer vigil -- typical Makati elite of the type Erap loves to bash. His take: the business community is a bit shaken, but nobody thinks there's any chance of a change of government.

There are three or four main rabble rousers, the Senators who voted against opening the envelope. Primarily Enrile, Miriam Santiago, Gringo, Honosan, & Lacson. Some of the more enlightened of the opposition (esp. Dong Puno) were appaled by Miriam's exhibition the other night basically enciting to riot and saying "let's march on the Palace"

Puno explicitly distanced himself -- the opposition is busing in peasants from the Southern islands by the ferry load.

Going price for a high level general to flip flop is P 30 million; even lowly noncoms can get a cool P 1 million for seeing the Erap light

Lots of plunder/blood money behind this -- there was a big drug bust two days ago, lots of shabu (speed), the Chinese dealer/importer (it was probably cooked up in a tub in Thailand) was an old time buddy of Jose Velarde. He was carrying a business card of Erap from his Vice President days with the message: "Any assistance extended to my friend ______ would be greater appreciated." Your basic get out of jail free card.

Best text message of the week: EDSA I: Free from a dictator. EDSA II: Free from a crook. EDSA III: Free breakfast, free lunch, free dinner, snacks too!

The masa are getting plenty of food, port-a-potties, and about P300-500 a day.

The EDSA Shrine is right in front of Robinsons Mall, there is a high class hotel -- several of Ping Lacson's police and military buddies have conveniently taken rooms there, the better to orchestrate the goings-on

The folks over at AmCham are jittery too, and more than a few are getting antsy for things to finally straighten up in this country. I talked to one Filipino -- top level IT systems consultant, lots of international credibility -- who sits on various regional/ASEAN type committees and so forth. When they do their roundtable discussions and its his turn to talk up the RP, he says they always roll their eyes (why the hell can't those Filipinos ever get their act together?)

Tabac (that's FVR or Manong Eddie depending on your druthers) came rushing back from an 18-day international trade mission (the usual dog and pony shows trying to invest greenback dolla) to help hold the fort. He immediately repudiated various statements by Ernie Maceda -- slanderous accusations that FVR was behind every single machination and was just out to get Erap, whom he never liked anyway --

The fundamental problem is that all the People Powers in the world won't make any difference unless you have more than just rotating elites. The reason the masa elected Erap in the first place is that they wanted to try somebody they could relate to instead of some scion of a hacendero family.

(The attempted power grab) is definitely not over. The crowds are growing. The Chinese banker I referred to earlier believes that if the opposition keeps bringing in those boats trying to match the sheer mass/size of EDSA II the administration will have to move soon to disperse.

Two main concern: (a) that Miriam or Enrile will incite the crowd to riot -- and (b) the military thing. However, Reyes seems to be a good Defense chief and the administration is beating their cell phones to death trying to keep the Offizercorps in line

Personally, I'm hoping things settle down by the time I get back in town Saturday. Moving Erap down to Laguna (a couple of hours away) should help.