Daily commentary on Asian business strategy, management, market research, marketing tips, business prospects, economic and culture news. Market prospects. Economic prospects. Short reviews, links, advice, satire and topical coverage for international and Asian managers doing business in Asia.

The Hari Ini column is available daily on the Asian Business Strategy & Street Intelligence Ezine home page. Sure.. go there now for more of the same. At least it's fresher...

This page contains one month of the archives.

The Hari Ini column documents off-the cuff comments, very odd spots, unsubstantiated rumours, misinterpretations, cruel innuendo, limp jokes, dodgy links, tips lacking in credibility, and other material very roughly related to Asian business, marketing, management, culture, politics, economics and why the earth is round.

Some of the items emerge into sections later on; some are contributed by email or word of mouth by friends of the forum, columnists, editorial advisors, and the Chao Phraya River Rat. ..Most of it just ends up here...

Basically it means we can at least comment on happenings that we wouldn't otherwise have the time to.

"Hari Ini" means "Today" in both Malaysian and Indonesian.

..Which means that everything on this page is already outta date...

As the masthead suggests, this column also includes all the news that doesn't fit..

It also means we can add some lightheartedness and CNN type shallowness to our otherwise more serious content. As CNN proves, such content sells...

Mostly the column just reflects the mood of the editors on the day, and gives a potted summary of key issues in the region. If you want it to reflect your mood as well, email us contributions at chiyo@apmforum.com.

Chiyo Hyiuiki (Webmaster, and on behalf of the editors)

Bangkok: January 30th 2001

The IMF are expected to announce downgrades to global growth estimates in the final stages of the Davos talk fest. They would have hated to put a damper on all those skiing outings...

Stinky Cheese and The more things change.... The talk on the streets of Bangkok is that PM elect Thaksin will appoint Big Jiew, or Chevalit as his bag man - oops sorry - Deputy.

Name sound familiar? ...Well it should

Chevalit was the PM responsible for the Thai economic crisis 3 years ago, presiding over the mess with his deputy of the time (Guess who? ...Some guy called Thaksin who was a NAP fellow traveller at the time).. Chevalit is most well remembered by Hari Ini readers as the leader who promised his constituency free money in order to replace the TV's they had smashed in when they saw opposition leader's faces on the screen. Chevalit's NAP (New Aspiration Party or as we prefer to call it the New Exasperation Party) is very popular out Issan way, which like Thaksin's Thai Con Thai party uses Applied Skinnerian behaviour modification to amass votes (place some stinky cheese at the end of the maze with a few crumbs at the start to get them scuttling... - before they find their way through the maze have another election and change the location of the cheese again)...

From the bank of international settlements a stimulating article on Information Flows during the Asian Crisis. From the US National Bureau of Economic Research - Intermediaries in Entrepot Trade: Hong Kong Re-Exports of Chinese Goods. Thanks to the Scout Report for Business and Economics for these.

Thai Con Thai: Thai Admen are riding high on the generally accepted view from beer bars in Sukhumvit to the revered halls of parliament that the major factor in his win was a highly successful ad campaign. Run by a Shin Group ad agency, the campaign did all the right things very well - a direct simple message - and a focus on the wealthy Thaksin. Let's hope the product delivers the goods.. The other old Ad man's maxim... Good advertising kills a bad product faster.

George Soros, nemesis of the "it ain't our fault" school of thought led by a curious rojak of notables including Malaysian PM Mahathir, Asian social activitists, nation state nationalists and International Socialists, has cancelled Thursday's visit to Thailand. Citing a bad cold (a seasonal complaint from Davos WEF insiders), he also said that it also "gave him an excuse" to cancel given the strong likelihood of vigorous protests in Bangkok, including threats of the ubiquitous "pie-in-the-face", fast becoming the preferred weapon of the "anti-globalization" crew. But was the real responsibility of Soros and his own "crony capitalists" for the Asian crisis - beyond the mainly politically inspired rhetoric from both sites. The Chao Phraya River Rat offers his own analysis later today...

Here we go again: Thailand's second round of elections were held yesterday (Monday) with limited interest at all from media and even voters. Held due to yellow and red cards being handed out to winning candidates in the first round due to allegations of fraud and vote buying in 62 constituencies. More evidence that the Thai people take corruption much less seriously than the Constitution and the Electoral Commission. Reasons for the low interest included the feeling that the EC would not have enough time to investigate new allegations before they have to declare the election 1 month after the first one. Some constitutencies went back to the polls 5 times in last year's Senate election held last year. - ...Now thats 100 Baht each time you voted - some voters were grinning ear to ear...

More pause for Chinese investors: According to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post - Concern about transparency of government policy has been revived by Beijing's imposition of a levy of 10 per cent of the listing proceeds of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for a social security fund, according to fund managers and analysts. See their Beijing's social security levy sounds alarm bells report.

Bangkok: January 24th 2001

As one of her first acts in her new office, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo prohibited all government offices from doing business with her family. Such mischievous ideas aimed at the soft underbelly of Asian values will have to be stomped on or it will be the end of Asian politics and business as we know it.. Heh, such perks are the major reward of clawing your way up the greasy pole to be chief honcho.

The Year of the Snake is finally with us, accompanied by the traditional Chinese New Year stock market uptick we predicted (modestly) last week, with Singapore's stock market plunge of recent weeks losing momentum and Malaysia up a whopping 2.4% in one day as an ang pow for investors. Don't get too excited about the traditional Malaysian stock market rally of recent weeks however. One Malaysian friend of the Rat is reporting that "there are less bonuses this year and insiders in the manufacturing industry say they are facing a slowdown at least for the next 3 quarters. Already US orders/jobs have been slashed and there is more to come".

The Pain of Thai reform: It's not only the well connected cronies to whom reform is a dirty word. Voters in Northern Thailand have complained that their expected January income was slashed when nobody bought their votes.

Down South where the Democrats held on to seats in their traditional electoral stronghold, despite the Thaksin-led Thai Rak Thai whitewash everywhere else, Thai Rak Thai supporters besieged electoral offices complaining of electoral fraud and corruption resulting in losses for their candidates. While the Democrats are not white knighted virgins in the transparency and dirty electoral tricks, the real motives of protestors were less transparant. Thaksin, good businessman that he is, had implemented a "pay for performance" rewards system for Thai Rak Thai canvassers, payable on successful election of the candidates. On hearing of the loss of income due to the failure of their candidates, the next step was to cry foul...

None of the Bastards: Not that the Electoral Commission is the paragon of transparency and honesty the Constitutional Commmitee meant it to be. Some electoral commissioners themselves are also under suspicion for being bought off by candididates leading to a suspiciously large return of 10% "invalid votes" in many electorates. And this despite the inspired decision to give Thai voters a column on their voting slips labeled "None of the Above". (Yet another creative idea from Thailand worthy of export)

Just how far is Thaksin willing to go to be a people's Prime Minister? Apart from pledging 1,000,000 Baht for each village, suspending farmer's bad debts and promising 30 Baht medical services for the poor, his choice of venues for celebrating his victory may cause pause. Straight after his election, the leader of Thais loving Thais and giving falang business the finger went straight to Starbucks for a Café Latté, and followed it up with sanook at golf clubs and other hangouts of the dilettante well-to-do. Pretty hard for the poor of Thailand to get entrance to these places to touch the hand of greatness...

Much debate on the 60 minute wait for baggage at the new Kuala Lumpur International Airport in KL over the past few months, spurred on by officials stating that a 60 minute wait was quite acceptable given that the airport was such a bloody big impressive one. As Hari Ini reported last month, the principle that new airports should be appraised on their ability to get punters from place to place with better efficiency rather than their architectural splendour got the short shrift. A conversation with a senior engineer who worked on the KLIA, Hong Kong and now the extension of the Singapore airport, reveals that the problems relate not so much to problems with the baggage conveying systems as such, as 3 different systems are used - one from the satellite terminal to the main terminal, one in the middle, and one from the middle to the baggage carousels in the arrival lounge. The problem is that after well over a year, the systems still don't work together. Add to this that the "...rats are eating the fiber optics...", don't expect any improvement soon...

Bangkok: January 21st 2001

Well Clarence outdid himself with not one but 3 Pearls this month as he sweats it out keeping up with the sweeping changes in the Philippines this month. Only three days after Thursday's Apocalypse Now or Armageddon? piece, business people in the Philippines heave a mass sigh of relief as neither occurred and according to Clarence it's now Armageddon Averted. His three Pearls this month range the gamut of emotions from despair to elation as the combined forces of Filipino business, military, the élite, the Church and the middle class finally overcame the forces of ignorance and celluloid fantasy.

They are a living testament to the speed of change and the increasing unsustainability of leadership and management based on old style Asian values and patronage. This is democracy at it's finest and staging a comeback, far outweighing it's massive failure in delivering Estrada to power less than 3 years ago...

Previous flashes:

Breaking News: Saturday 12:45pm Manila time Erap's Wrap party is over; Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo sworn in as President, promising to work hard to remove the "vice" from the Philippines as well...

Friday 8pm: - Erap's Wrap Party in Manila: It looks like Estrada has finally run out of mates and its time to wrap up the movie... Follow the continuing Real Time account of today's events in the Philippines direct from Raoul, typing away on his laptop from under the stage in Manila in The Raoul Transcripts...

For official breaking Philippine news see our Philippine news feed page.

Bangkok: January 19th 2001

Snake Tales: Investors in Asia markets are keeping their hopes up for a Chinese New Year rally next week as the Year of the Snake is ushered in. Even in countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, the proportion of business controlled by the Chinese far outweighs their proportion of the population. And the last few years have seen strong rallies in many Asian countries at this time, not for any good financial reason, but maybe because of the Chinese belief that all debts must be settled by the new year or misfortune will befall the defaulters. It all makes business people feel good and local investors generous.

Retreating into the distance is the dragon, symbolising prosperity, success, and power. This time around the Year of the Dragon, however was anything but prosperous for most Asians, marked by a stall in the much vaunted Asian recovery. Puff failed to work his magic. Yes, we recovered, but the recovery petered out as reform stalled, and strains became apparent between rich and poor and ethnic and religious groups. Frustration increased while people assumed that the bubble decade where money appeared from nowhere, was the norm rather than the exception. This was not a great Year of the Dragon, with the possible exception of China itself, which continued to grow at a smart pace.

But the Year of the Snake doesn't appear to have good portents. According to the Year of the Snake predictions from a Chinese Astrology Site:

Snake years often herald dramatic events after the celebratory Year of the Dragon. Revolutions, financial upheavals, and general collapses due to the short-sighted excesses of the Dragon's play. The outward revelry is best turned inward at this time. Physical appearance and personal romance are ready for improvement and grooming. The charisma of the Snake is in the air as sensuality takes center stage. The self-interest extends also to self-improvement through studies and classes. There is much to be learned if people are not blinded by their egos this year. Embrace the self-expression and while being spiritual in outlook. (sic)

Don't expect much activity from your Asian partners next week. Many businesses close for the week, and usually two to three days in most Asian countries are gazetted holidays. Chinese people exchange "ang pows", small red envelopes usually containing money, and meet with family for general feasting and celebration. Malaysia this year has lifted a ban on dragon dances, and Gus Dur lifted a ban on celebrating Chinese festivals in Indonesia as one of the first reforms of his administration.

And finally, according to the Snake People site, best jobs for snakes are Education and Psychiatry... which may well be what we all need a touch of this year...

To all our Chinese friends a very happy Year of the Snake...

Bangkok: January 17th 2001

Breaking News: 10:30am Philippines Time: Traders are walking out of the Philippines Stock Exchange; 20,000 crowd of demonstrators and growing in central Manila; Ramos leading another protest march; Senators to hold press conference in a few hours; Estrada pleads for calm; Troops on standby but not yet ordered to clamp down on protestors. Click for more Philippines breaking news.

Manila erupted last night when the Senate impeachment trial voted against examining Estrada bank records that the prosecution said would prove that Estrada had ammassed massive wealth during his presidency - well beyond that which could be attributed to a Presidential salary and legal perks. Prosecution senators resigned, and 10,000 took to the streets last night . Today schools are closed. The Peso is down 2 pesos early this morning and the Philippine stock market a full 6%. (PHS Composite Chart) Well..., Clarence in the Philippines did warn us earlier in the year that January would be the month of Strange Days...

...A Friend of the Forum emailed the following this morning:

This place is ready to explode today, for the first time I am getting seriously worried about the situation. God help us if Erap calls in the troops today and uses the inevitable massive demonstrations as excuse for repression or martial law. I am stuck here and now way to leave, and my business sucks.

Have three important meetings today, but everybody may hunker down. Not a fortuitous day for business. I'm headed out anyway, but am wearing my Nikes in case I have to dodge bullets or run from angry goon squads.

Tsismis is useless now as so many rumors swirl around and everything is entirely random and unpredictable -- witness last night's Senate fiasco, which nobody anticipated. This is clearly a fundamental threat to the entire nation.

Keep up to date with breaking news in the Philippines today with our Philippines news feed page or abs.cbnnews.com.

Soccer is one of, if not the most, popular sport in Thailand. And politics apes sport, not only in pollie-buying from competing teams but also in the language of the Thailand Electoral Commission who refers to political candidates under suspicion for fraud as being red-carded or yellow-carded. Lists published in Thai newspapers this morning included red cards (candidates who cannot participate in the second round of elections) and yellow cards, which warn the candidate but allow them to participate in the next round. The Top 20 predominantly feature winning Thai Rak Thai candidates.

The political opposition in Malaysia, becoming bolder with a by-election win late last year and a ruling Barisan Nasional showing continuing signs of disunity, is holding a "10,000 person gathering" on the 20th of this month. Previous illegal mass gatherings have been put down, sometimes violently, by police. This followed the failure of the previously successful government tactic of dissuading attendance by simply predicting violence and mayhem, and making it clear that those attending such gatherings were anti-Malaysian.

Email from a friend of the forum in Bangkok...

For around a year, half of Issan have camped outside government buildings in Bangkok, protesting that the Chuan government has ignored the plight of the poor. Since Thaksin's win, this shabby, dirty semi-permanent community built from waste building materials shows little sign of moving camp. Time will tell whether a rich man can help the poor better than the considerably more modest-of-income Chuan. Whether the real contribution of the Chuan government - providing a kick start to reform in the one of the most corrupt developed countries in the world - will be lost amongst the preference of Thais from Chiangmai to Issan to Bangkok for instant wealth rather than reform, is yet to be seen...

Bangkok: January 11th 2001

Breakthrough in Burma? The junta leaders in Burma/Myanmar have always felt comfortable with Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir's style of leadership, and Malaysia was one of Burma's most vocal proponents in admitting them to the ASEAN non-interference club. Now it looks like an appeasement in their policy towards Aung San Suu Kyi and her opposition party who won the elections only 10 years ago to be overthrown by the present military government is edging closer, though from a long way back. Though some optimism is being expressed after this week's visit of UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail, Mahathir's previous visit, though underplayed by the international press, may well have set a positive environment for increasing talks.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's top economist expects a recession in the United States and the possibility of a "full-blown global recession." Stephen Roach advised clients on Monday that he would now attach "..a 45 percent probability to a full-blown global recession.." He cut his expectation for 2001 growth in the global gross domestic product by 17 percent to 2.9 percent, with the assumption of a U.S. recession accounting for about half of the downward revision. Other economists are more sanguine, but don't tell us we didn't warn you.

Japan, the second or third largest economy in the world depending on how you count the Europe, remains a sick man with recent reports of still declining consumer confidence.

Portents for South East Asian economies are starting to kick in. Malaysian industry expanded at its slowest pace in 17 months in November as electronics producers scaled back in response to the slowing economy in the US, a major export market. Industrial production grew 11.1 per cent in November from a year earlier, down from a revised 20.3 per cent gain in October and the slowest pace since July 1999, according to the Department of Statistics. Mahathir has already decreased growth estimates for Malaysia this year by around 2% from last year's estimates.

Singapore, which ended 2000 with glowing economic credentials is presently suffering an uncharacteristic moderate but sustained decline in the stock market and has revised their growth estimate from 5.5 to 6% to 4.5% in 2001 due to uncertainties in the US economy. JP Morgan Chase revised their estimates to 4.5% from 5.5 to 6% just last week. JM Sassoon also recently cut its estimates from 6.8% to 5%.

It certainly was a blessing that Thai Rak Thai won by a landslide on Saturday. As expected, claims of electoral fraud are massive, but not so much to cause the winner of the Thailand election to be in doubt. Even the losing contender and the outgoing Democrat government is uncharacteristically candid. According to Democrat leader Chuan, he lost "...because ministers failed to address the people's wishes and we must admit that the public is fed up with us..."

Yet even in Thailand, voters do not know whether winning party leader Thaksin will be able to represent his party and the country pending the review of his indictment for fraud.

2001 will be nothing but uneventful...

Bangkok: January 10th 2001

Welcome back to Hari Ini for 2001 and to our new readers a sincere welcome. As our first day back at work we thought it would be appropriate to remind our users and let our new users know of our unique approach to providing Asian business, management, and marketing information. Hari Ini is the daily informal review section of the Asia Business Intelligence Ezine, which comprises the Asia Pacific Management Forum, Asia Market Research dot Com, and Branding Asia dot Com.

This month the ezine is reporting from Bangkok Thailand, and as usual content covers the whole region but has a special street emphasis on our roving location.

Those of you who been with us for a while will know we specialise in original reviews and columns, research, articles and books from a network of business people in China, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and other Asia Pacific countries whose first priority is their own business and second passion is writing about it. Our columnists and contributors include both locals and expatriates, senior managers in large organizations, and entreprenuers and consultants. As a result our continually updating content covers management tips, market prospect reviews, human resource management, strategic marketing tips, economic reviews, political and country risk data and news targeted specifically to those with a professional business interest in Asian business and management.

You wont read this material anywhere else - plus we link aggressively to specific selected pages on other sites which provide the information and services we don't. The ezine also reprints material from over a dozen of the finest business schools specialising in Asian management in the form of staff research articles, and reviews of market research from the world's leading research agencies.

And now, back to work for a shortened first Hari Ini for 2001...

Ajinomoto Japan saw a massive stock market drop yesterday on the arrest of 3 officials in Indonesia after Islamic food authorities declared their MSG product non-halal (not permissible by Islam) due to the presence of pork by products. Ajinomoto markets Indonesia's most popular MSG product, especially popular with street vendors to spice up the otherwise bland (but cheap and filling) Bakso meatballs. Abdurrahman Wahid, concerned at the affect on Japanese investment and blaming the same forces that he says are attempting to weaken his reform government, stepped in late yesterday however declaring that that product may not violate Islamic law, just as Malaysian Islamic groups were calling for an investigation of the company's products there. We expect Ajinomoto shares to recover today.

Thaksin Shinawatra is - well - pissed off - with the less than joyful foreign reaction to his massive win in the weekend's Thailand election. "... (They) neither understood nor knew what his party could do to heal the economic problems... How will they know that (my policies) will not work out? Any decision or criticism should be left to the Thai people..", he stated. Now just what other Asian leader does that sound like? It was hard to find a Thai on Sunday who said they voted for anybody else than Thaksin, from our hawker food sellers to the Hard Rock Cafe and the Q bar. Then again, Thaksin has promised lots of cash goodies and debt relief, which dosen't extend to foreign journalists. Our own Chao Phraya River Rat should be shaking in his rat hole after his Thai election analysis yesterday, apart from the fact that we doubt Thaksin reads the APMF.

A study from National University of Singapore (NUS) has annointed Singapore the most competitive telecommunication industry in the region, followed by Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, with little between them, and then Taiwan and Malaysia. Bringing up the rear is South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, China and Indonesia.

Kuala Lumpur: January 4th 2001

Happy New Year and all the best for a challenging 2001.

Hari Ini, the Chao Phraya River Rat, Research reviews and most columnists are taking a well deserved rest over the Christmas, Hari Raya Aidilfitri, and New Year periods.

We will be back to normal from January 8th 2001. In the meantime have a great holiday, and for new visitors please feel free to browse our extensive archives of columns, reviews, discussion, country reports, research reports and much more.

The ezine will be offering many new features early next year, and introducing content from some of the most prestigious business publishers world wide who are joining us as sponsors and partners for the first time. Finally don't forget to see us early in the year for our Asia Trends 2001 Special, our regular annual review of what to expect in business, management, and marketing for the coming year in Asia.

Our Xmas present to you is our Christmas Page and Blanchard's Christmas Parable, a retelling of the nativity story in modern day Asia.

See you next year!