Strange Sunday in Makati

July 27, 2003

Woke up quite early this morning, a Sunday, facing a serious late afternoon deadline, and was planning on getting the day off to a heavy carbo-load start with early breakfast at Country Waffles - owned by Bert Nivera, father or songster and heart-throb Martin Nivera, certainly the only place in Makati that opens at 6 am on the Sabbath featuring chicken fried steak and biscuits and gravy. Located right across from the Intercontinental Hotel, on the ground floor just below Oakwood, a serviced apartment outfit that's done pretty well catering to the needs and wants of the ex-pat and diplomatic crowd in transit between this, that, and the other, and just a couple hundred meters outside the Makati village I happen to call home.

Fortunately my home page is google news and my morning logon/e-mail check revealed that bad things were going down at precisely my point of destination - young army turks were in full rebellion, ensconced at Oakwood, stringing up C-4, shooting guns in the air, and issuing ultimatums.

I stayed home, met my deadline, and did without the home cooking.

Now late afternoon, following find some quick-and-dirty observations on the situation (with inputs/opinions kindly provided by my friend Peter Wallace of the Wallace Business Forum, check out their intelligence products if you're looking for the inside skinny on what's really happenin' in the RP).

The rebels are a group of disgruntled young officers and enlisted men who feel that the reforms promised by the President simply haven't taken place. And it appears that they do indeed have legitimate gripes. The leaders are members of PMA (Philippine Military Academy) classes 1994 and 1995; they are early-to-mid career soldiers, precisely the group that has shouldered the heaviest on-the-ground burden in the fight against terrorists in Mindanao. They have lost many comrades, and spend a lot of time away from their families - and for a pittance, given the sad salary levels in AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines). Their monthly salaries languish somewhere around $250 a month (maybe, for a captain). Even generals make less than $500). Sporting red armbands displaying a red flag similar to the one used by General Emilio Aguinaldo in his revolt against the Spaniards in 1896, they are calling themselves the Magdalo group, the same name used by Aguinaldo.

There's an eerie parallel here with the Cory years. Gringo Honosan, who spearheaded several coup attempts against Cory, may also be involved in this incident. He had met with the young turks to give them advice just before the incident, and was reportedly on his way to confer with them this morning. The basic parallel: A female leader swept into office by People Power swears to clean up corruption, but somehow never quite delivers and things just get more and more crooked.

Another historical parallel raised by some pundits is the slowly escalating civil unrest - demonstrations, bombings, army uprisings, abortive coups - that characterized the last few months leading up to Marcos' declaration of martial law. He was also approaching a mandated term limit and, had he abided by that limit, would have been out of office within a few months. Instead, he stayed on for a couple of decades and bled the country dry. Who's to say history isn't insidiously repeating itself?

The choice of Oakwood and the Makati Commercial Center (now more properly called Ayala Center) is highly symbolic. Makati is the center of the country's financial industry, and today's circus-like goings-on completely paralyzed the city. The usual high octane atmosphere of Glorietta on Sunday was replaced by a foreboding silence and sense of dread as the 5 pm deadline for surrender came and went. As I'm writing this, the deadline has been moved to 7 pm; some troops have surrendered, but the leaders of the turks seem to have gained a moral victory (GMA blinked already).

Final notes re: probable sequalae: (1) No matter what happens, this is a major black eye (yet another) for a country that, if it were a boxer, would be portrayed as having a huge cauliflower ear and broken nose; investors were already having second thoughts, and this will make matters worse; (2) GMA will now be under tremendous pressure to stick with her original declaration not to run in '04. The Magdalo group is demanding her resignation, which is almost sure not to happen, yet if she declares her intention to run now she’ll be asking for heaploads of trouble. You gotta dance with who brung ya, as they say in a Western swing song, and GMA owes her Presidency to the fortuitous intervention of certain military officers at EDSA II.

Don't know what will happen by Monday morning, when most readers will see this, but am hoping for the best. Reckon I'll plan on working at home again, especially given GMA's scheduled State of the Nation (SONA) address Monday afternoon. It now takes on huge import and could be a make-or-break event for the administration.

Oh well, at least it made for an interesting day of rest in the urban megalopolis they call Manila...

Clarence Henderson in Asian News on July 27, 2003 05:36 PM

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Comments

Some little known facts:

Immediately after taking power in 86' Corys relatives & oppositionists managed to drain PNB & other "Gov" Banks & Institutions of some 560 Billion Pesos.claiming Marcos took it with him.

More infrastructure roads, bridges, schools, (the state of Phil. public education has deteriorated by at least 50% since Marcos time, and is currently in the top 3 corrupt gov. agencies) was built during Marcos time than all other presidents combined, past or present.
In 1980 generally any 10 year old kid on the street could speak good English, I have had UP & other recent "College Graduates" working for me in the last few years and they cannot write a decent paragraph.

According to the ADB, Japan, and US aid agencies all Aid money was accounted for during Marcos time and all certified that he didn't personnally benefit from it.(public records)
Check now, hundreds of millions in direct aid is currently being withheld.

Not a Marcos Loyalist, just interested in reality, not the perception created by people less interested in the truth and more interested in faith & belief.

Posted by: Mosche Dayan on July 28, 2003 02:22 PM

I find it strange, albeit amusing, that a person "just interested in reality" would hide behind the misspelled name of an Israeli military warrior (Moshe Dayan) who died in 1981.

Posted by: Bobby Manasan on July 30, 2003 10:16 AM

A link to a Reuters report today that referred to Clarence's report above:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3180644

Posted by: Chao Phraya River Rat on July 30, 2003 04:29 PM

I REALLY ADORE WHAT THE YOUNG OFFICERS OR THE MAGDALO GROUP DID. WHAT THEY HAVE DONE IS SUCH A GREAT SACRFICE, RISKING THEIR OWN SECURITY AND FUTURE. BUT UNFORTUNATELY, THESE SACRIFICES HAD NOT BEEN CREDITED BY THE GOVERNMENT AND MOST, BY US...FOR ME, NOW IS THE TIME TO STOP HIDING AND SCHEMING, LETS ALL FACE THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, STAND UP AND SPEAK UP, FILIPINOS!!!!

Posted by: BENI GRACE E.SUYKO on August 1, 2003 09:50 AM

I am currently residing in the states, was born and raised here. I have been in the Philippines back in 88, 93, 96-2001. It is unfortunate but most pinoys my age don't seem to pay too much attention to what goes on in the philippines or seem to not care. Anyhow being back in the state I get a sense of bewilderment on what issues are going on in the Philippines. I regularly read the paper and watched the news when I lived there. Interacting with other people there helped me too in gaining knowledge on current events. Now all I have is what I hear/see on the media here (which is very little) and of course there is the internet. Really wish the best for my people there. Sometimes when I think about it all it is hard not to be apathetic.

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