The Arroyo administration is giddy with delight about the positive, kid glove coverage the country has unexpectedly been receiving in the global press. Ate Glo (short for "Auntie Gloria") loved her Time cover and latched onto the "Iron Lady" label, while recently reported year 2001 economic growth of 3.4% exceeded just about everybody's expectations. It's enough to make you stop and ask: You sure this is still the Philippines?

Of course there are still many icebergs lurking just below the surface. The economy is doing about as well as can be expected given international conditions, and the administration shouldn't be faulted for basking in the glow a bit. But the economy is still heavily dependent on electronic sector exports and remittances from OFWs (Overseas Foreign Workers). Many OFWs are now finding it harder to get their contracts renewed for (relatively) lucrative overseas jobs, and when they come back home they are apt to join the ranks of the unemployed.

Luckily, the administration's Cabinet team is first rate (with a smart bunch of Wharton and Harvard MBAs), and the key guys are making the right fiscal and economic moves. Foreign investors are sniffing around, and if the security thing could ever be resolved they might come in droves.

However, that's a big if. The outcomes associated with Uncle Sam's now-650 "advisors" in Mindanao are nothing if not uncertain. Not surprisingly, there has been some domestic noise made by the left, and one group has asked the Supreme Court to review whether the invite to the Amerikanos by the administration is constitutional. But the situation is a fait accompli, so we shall see. This week will probably see the first real operations, with American advisors trooping through the jungles with Philippine Army regulars. The GIs are authorized to shoot, but only "in self defense." Sounds like a matter of definition, and the Abu Sayyaf probably already have their first ambush laid out.

Odds are pretty good American boys will, at some point, die -- and remember, the entire Afghanistan campaign has had extremely minimal loss of life on the red, white, and blue side. Maybe call it a trip wire? If American lives are lost, betcha the Dubya administration will be screaming bloody murder and issuing urgent requests to the GMA administration to let the US of A send in the forces required for resolution. In which case there's no reason to believe GMA won't open the barn door wide. At that point, all bets are off. The quagmire thing, remember?