IMF managing director Horst Koehler told the World Economic Forum today that though still weak, the IMF "..hopes ... and I call it cautious optimism - that really a recovery is under way...".

It is not an uncommon view. US economic figures released last week for the last quarter in 2001 shocked observers by suggesting that the US recession had actually finished late last year.

In our own stamping ground, Malaysia and the Philippines reached 6 month stock market highs last week, as South East Asia joined the general Asian recovery headed by Taiwan and Korea in 2001.

Recovery is limited to markets with a substantial export market, especially in manufacturing however. Japan remains moribund. ..And investors are starting to question how much of the present Chinese market growth is hype and how much is reality. The South East Asian boom and bust years in the 19980's to 1990's should be enough to wise up investors to the "bubble potential" in Asia. In this aspect, at least, China is no special case.

At the same time we have what we have called in previous years - the Chinese New Year factor. The Chinese New Year Factor has generally seen stock markets with a strong Chinese business prescence grow strongly in the weeks prior to the new year. It can be seen historically in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Indonesia. All these markets are influenced highly - in most cases dominated - by Chinese business.

Portents are good, but let's wait till after the dawn of the year of the Horse to announce that the Chinese dominated Asian economy is finally moving as one. In the meantime, things are looking good around here...