After posting Phoenix from the Ashes a few weeks ago, I received a number of e-mails from readers saying they're glad I'm back and that they're looking forward to my future ruminations on life and business in this neck of the woods. Given that I didn't say much of substance in that column and that no particular efforts were made to google-ize hits, I was pleased to learn that there are actually folks out there in cyberspace who read these things, not to mention motivated to keep my word and start writing Pearls again.
Towards the end of that column (my first in almost a year), I indicated that I was going to take Pearl in a different direction, including avoiding commentating on current politics and such. Noble thought, that. I was already mid-draft on a column about regional trade and economic integration when the past week's cinematic montage of Days of Our Lives, Animal Soup, and the Keystone Kops put a bee in my bonnet to throw in my two cents worth. How can you not write about the place you live when the airwaves are flooded with wall-to-wall coverage of jueteng and wiretap hearings, the (un)united opposition features leftist civil society organizations demonstrating alongside rent-a-thugs paid for by Erap cronies, and poor President GMA is being demonized and persecuted (quote of the week: "This is unfair, but it is a cross that God in his wisdom has given me to bear, so I will bear it").
In other words, strange days are upon us yet again in Manila, leading me, with no malice aforethought and in gonzo mode, to generate a Pearl column straight through, front to back (the old Kerouac rolling paper through the typewriter trick), containing thoughts about as random as I could think 'em. (So much for resolutions).
Normalized Chaos and Philippine Institutions
When your life is lived in a perpetual state of crisis, chaos seems downright normal. In the Philippines, the always-present background noise has recently escalated in a rising crescendo of posturing, rhetoric, and shenanigans that bestow a certain edge to life in Manila - you never quite know when or where a meltdown's going to happen, when the specter of civil unrest will explode full-blown (People Power X? - see The Social Volcano), or when a coup d'etat might happen (retired generals are falling all over themselves volunteering to serve their country by heading juntas or transitional governments).
All of which makes Manila a good tour of duty for ex-pat journos and wire service hacks. The action never stops, what with official and unofficial hanky panky, inexplicable machinations, and the round-the-clock rumor mill (I sometimes think that tsmismis, pronounced "cheese-miz" and meaning gossip, is just as popular a Pinoy national sport as cockfighting). My friends in the news biz haven't been sleeping much these days, what with endless chasing about to track down (and usually discredit) the kazillion plus rumors circulating by text, internet, and word of mouth and the intense competition to nail the story and get it on the wire/web before the other guy. The fact that most everybody's lying and that you can't believe a word written in the local rags just adds another layer of complexity and gives the whole endeavor a certain bizarre appeal.
In earlier Pearls, I wrote about the "special relationship" between America and the Philippines, with a particular focus on the institutions we embedded here to help save our "little brown brothers" (An American's Reflections on the Persistence of Colonial Mentalities, Strange Brew: The Filipino-Yankee Rojak). American-style institutions were never particularly well-suited to Philippine realities and culture and never really took root in the soil of the Philippine archipelago, although Philippine "democracy" as practiced does bear more than a passing resemblance to Boss Tweed's Tammany Hall. That's why the Philippines so often has sound legislation with all the appropriate constitutional legalese, but lousy enforcement on the ground.
Take, for example, the three main institutional branches of the Philippine's American-style government. The Senate spends its time in dilatory debate, tortuous cross-examination, and phantasmagorical posturing. The judiciary has an unfortunate tendency to issue Temporary Restraining Orders (TROs) at the most inopportune times and the murkiness of the justice system continues to deter investors and otherwise hold back development (whatever happened to FVR's level playing field?). Meanwhile, the Executive is alternately besieged, bewitched, bothered, and bewildered and spins one way just about as fast as it spins the other.
The Weekend Soaps
Things were looking pretty tough for GMA Friday afternoon, especially after Cory (wearing yellow, natch) called for her resignation. Support was crumbling and the word on the street was that she was hanging by a thread - several pundits used the term "tipping point" to refer to the delicate balance and the fact that, at a certain point of intensity and melodrama, the whole GMA edifice must come tumbling down. The general consensus was that she was rapidly becoming toast and that all the king's horses and all the king's men would likely be unable to put the country back together again.
Yet suddenly and unexpectedly, just a couple of hours after Cory's statement, the Lone Ranger came roaring into the picture in a cloud of dust with a hearty heigh-ho Silver to save the day, that being none other than FVR, who just coincidentally showed up at the Palace to hold a press con and declare his unwavering support for the besieged President.
That certainly helped, but high anxiety prevailed while the conclave of the Catholic Bishops of the Philippines debated their position, with most experts figuring they would pull the figurative rug out from under GMA. But the eagerly awaited announcement Saturday waffled the issue, reflecting the Bishops inability to reach consensus (Filipino factionalism operates in every arena) and possibly a timely phone call from the Vatican. The bishops ended up scolding GMA publicly while still managing to say that they weren't going to call for her to step down after all. Malacanang breathed a sigh of relief. And life went on, for the nonce anyway.
The Yanks
The US government, of course, continues to pursue its own foreign policy interests in the context of the "special relationship" with RP and (inevitably) the GWOT (global war on terrorism). Mindanao's still a hotbed of terrorist activity, and GMA has not pushed through with all the anti-terrorist programs the Bush administration prefers. As usual, the US-RP dance is a love-hate affair nuanced twelve different ways.
Charge d'Affaires Joseph Mussomeli (now a short-timer in Manila pending his upcoming posting as Ambassador to Cambodia) made the expected statements about the US never backing any extra-constitutional solution (e.g., coups, people power, martial law, that sort of thing), yet elegantly tapdanced to avoid coming right out and saying the US unreservedly supports GMA. When probed, he pointed out that "we support the rule of law. Within that context, we believe the President is still the President" and that it was entirely within her purview to ask her Cabinet to step down. He concluded with the astute observation that "there seems to be too much focus on retaining power or, on the opposition side, attaining power and not enough concern at all for the welfare of the Filipino people." No kidding!
And So?
So anyway, as of today, things have calmed down a bit. FVR looks poised to play a key role (but don't call him "kingmaker"), and GMA is leaning towards accepting his proposed charter change ("cha-cha) to a parliamentary system, even indicating she's willing to cut short her term in doing so. We shall see.
The opposition is still determined to cause trouble, and is boasting that they will scare up a million people for tomorrow's demonstrations in Makati (note to self: avoid Ayala Avenue Wednesday). Probably won't happen given the fragmentation of the opposition (i.e., Erap cronies, progressive leftist/civil society groups, and communists sleeping together) and the general lethargy of the Filipino people, who right now seem to have no stomach for yet another People Power leading to yet another untenable situation.
The big problem for the opposition (and the country?) is that there is no credible alternative to GMA. Maybe the Bishops realized just in time that issuing a call for GMA's resignation might open a Pandora's box better left sealed, perhaps even fueling the long-overdue explosion of the social volcano. (Note: Bayan Muna, a progressive, leftist group that now has representation in Congress, issued a predictable statement calling for leaders with known integrity and credibility to step forward, leaders who truly represent sectors such as farmers, workers, urban poor, and indigenous peoples. Good luck).
Meanwhile, the fiscal situation continues to deteriorate, and the relief and credibility that would have come with implementation of the e-VAT have now vanished. The Supreme Court suspended collection of the e-VAT at the behest of opposition trapos and oil interests, and suddenly we're right back to square one. Word is that the 10 Cabinet Secretaries who jumped ship did so largely because they believed GMA was behind the ruling. No question that she may enjoy a short-term political benefit from the ruling simply because oil and gas prices won't inflate quite as rapidly pending re-imposition of the e-VAT, which gives the opposition one less rallying point for turning out the masses. Hmmm…
Longer term, the Philippines looks to me to be, not to put too fine a point on it, in deep doo-doo. Population growth rages out of control, and there's no way this economy is going to generate the jobs needed for so many new workers. The educational system is in a state of advanced deterioration and the country's much-vaunted competitive advantage due to superior English speaking is history. Endemic corruption and rent-seeking are the norm and institutions are not doing their jobs. Combine all that with an increasingly hollowed-out class structure (the rich keep getting richer, the middle class keeps getting the hell out of the country, and the poor keep getting poorer and hungrier) and you got problems.
