Well, it's January in Manila, and the business world is gradually (grudgingly?) coming to life. Things are always slow to get rolling here early in the year, as is the case in many Asian countries, particularly this year in cities like Hong Kong and Singapore where the relatively early Chinese New Year means that there are effectively only three business weeks in January and everything grinds to a halt for lion dancers, firecrackers, and ang pao (those little red envelopes with cash inside). Our Pinoy clan celebrates the New Year in a small way with plenty of tikoy (sticky rice cakes to make sure we all stick together) and generous favorite food offerings to our dear departed (see Golden Dragon Ruminations for some background on Chinese New Year in the Philippine context).
I worked on a number of Pearl concepts recently, and had planned on starting the year off with a figurative bang in the form of a series of well-formulated, thought-provoking, and controversial Pearls, but the best laid plans of mice and men sometimes go astray. In this case, the combination of D&D (deadlines and deliverables), pursuing Big New Consulting Opportunities, and my own compulsiveness have prevented those pieces from emerging just yet. For regular readers, just hang tight, they'll be on the way as soon as I can manage.
For the time being, how 'bout some quick free associations about what's going on in Manila as the Water Goat makes its way into the picture...
GMA ended 2002 with a bang on Rizal Day (December 30) by unexpectedly announcing that she wouldn't run again in 2004. She dropped the bombshell during a routine early morning speech in Baguio; most of the press were on holiday, as you might expect, and the wire services and CNN were scrambling to pick up the details. For some reason, I saw the story online shortly after it broke. My first reaction? A quick flashback to March, 1968 ("I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office - the Presidency of your country. Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.") The speaker was Lyndon Johnson, who hoped to bring a quick resolution to the Vietnam conflict. The outcome was somewhat different than he had hoped for, with the quagmire getting worse and stretching on for several years thereafter.
GMA's intentions were apparently similar, as she wanted to preempt petty politics and move on to address some of the major problems facing her nation in a rational, nonpolitical fashion. Her choice of Rizal Day was probably not coincidental (Filipino culture/history is big on martyrdom), and expectations immediately after the speech were high. Pundits heaved a collective sigh of relief and called for everybody to stop their silly disputations and come together to solve the nation's (substantial and growing) problems. Clearly a bipartisan effort was needed to deal with such accumulating challenges as acute poverty, economic stagnation, pollution and environmental degradation, the exploding population (the list goes on). Even prominent members of the opposition (like Ping Lacson) urged their colleagues to give GMA the benefit of the doubt.
Fat chance, with the events of the last month suggesting a replay of LBJ.
Within a matter of days it was back to mudslinging and semi-paralysis as usual. On the right the three stooges (Erap, Juan Ponce Enrile, and Francisco Tatad) called for snap elections and tried to pull off a bogus impeachment charge (with no case, which fortunately the House recognized in rejecting the request). Ping Lacon is trying hard to link GMA to Mark Jiminez by flashing a dinner snapshot taken well before she was elected, even requesting a Senate hearing on the matter. The left has its own stooges, as evidenced by their unwillingness to give GMA a fair shake and their efforts to disrupt last weeks' EDSA II celebration at the EDSA shrine, an occasion that should have been sacred but that was in fact just another circus. Call it low-grade political burlesque.
In an earlier column I referred to Manila politics as "...more fun than a barrel of monkeys..." (see Cronies and Booty Capitalism), referring to the vitriolic exchanges, absurdist posturing, and downright weirdness that characterizes Filipino politics. But I wrote that piece when I was relatively new in Manila and still enjoyed the shenanigans from a spectator standpoint. But my own perspective has changed, and I am fundamentally concerned about the country now that I have settled here with my family and am working hard to build something meaningful. At the risk of being bashed for sticking my nose into domestic politics, I think it's fair to ask why Filipino politicians who say they love their country can't come together to address issues that, if they continue to be ignored, may doom any chance the Philippines has to finally emerge from its historical economic funk.
Foreigners may find all the talk in the press about cha-cha and con-con a bit confusing. "Cha-cha" means charter change, or amendments to the Constitution (which is probably not a bad idea given the reality that the Filipino political system is deeply flawed). Much of the talk is about converting from the existing Presidential system to a parliamentary system. Indeed, a strong argument can be made that the existing Manila-centric system favors the old élites, breeds class tension, and protects vested interests. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Filipino political parties revolve around personalities rather than issues, as evidenced by Erap's election in 1998 and the fact that Fernando Poe, Jr. (FPJ), an action movie star with zero political experience, would be a probable shoo-in for Prez should he throw his hat in the ring for 2004.
Article XVII of the 1987 Constitution authorizes cha-cha either through a constituent assembly (of the House and the Senate) or a specially convened constituent convention (that's the "con-con"). Historically, the Commonwealth Constitution was changed by direct legislation in 1940, then by a constitutional convention in 1973; Marcos ensured that those changes were rubber stamped. The 1987 Constitution was developed by a commission hand-picked by President Aquino in the wake of the original EDSA Revolution.
The main problem right now is that many members of both House and Senate are maneuvering to control the cha-cha through a constituent assembly made up of - themselves? The same people who voted to keep that fateful envelope sealed, invoking People Power? The same people who are licking their chops and thinking of extending their own terms beyond the 2004 elections (in essence re-electing themselves)? The same people who tried so hard to block the arrest of fugitive Mark Jiminez, supposedly in the interests of human rights and national sovereignty, in reality because they'd been feeding at his trough? The same people who've been protecting Ping Lacson by whitewashing the investigation into his criminal activities despite heavy incriminating evidence?
Yeah, those people.
Closely intertwined with the issue is the growing brouhaha about the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Law (RA No. 9160), which was recently passed in response to major pressure from the G7-led Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Seems the law failed to meet international AML standards on several fronts. The FATF has made it clear in no uncertain terms that the law needs to be amended to allow disclosure of suspicious bank accounts without a court order, lower the alarm threshold to P500,000 from the current P4 million, and allow retroactive application.
Major lobbying efforts by the administration are underway. BSP Governor. Buenaventura, Chair of the Anti-Money Laundering Council, is leading the way, with major business groups such as the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) and Financial Executive Institute of the Philippines (Finex) urging the legislators to listen to reason. The FATF has major league clout, and this week's Manila papers have contained reports (probably speculative) about major international banks are already refusing to be correspondent banks for Filipino banks. If the FATF places the Philippines on its black list of "non-cooperating countries and territories" in the illustrious company of such countries as Myanmar, Nigeria, and Ukraine, the implications are serious for international business, not to mention the lifeline of OFW remittances on which this country depends.
Despite the bona fide case for amending the AML law, and the clear benefits for the country, Filipino nationalists are up in arms. We must preserve and protect our sovereign interests, our fundamental legal principles are at stake, we cannot allow this international cabal to tell us how to run our country, etc. Stay tuned, the deadline is February 12.
One consequence that GMA may not have foreseen clearly when she made her announcement that she wouldn't run is that she basically left her own coalition out in the cold. Everybody was operating on the assumption that she would finish out her term and be the standard bearer in 2004. But now? The frontrunner is Raul Roco, former Secretary of Education, who seems a decent enough fellow. But he is not known for his charisma or coalition-building abilities and the administration has yet to reach out to explicitly back him. Although he has shown up at the top of numerous polls, it's a long time indeed till the election and it's an open question whether he will hold up as a viable candidate.
In contrast, the opposition is loaded with potentially charismatic characters. Fernando Poe Jr. (FPJ, the movie star), Danding Cojuangco, and Ping Lacson are being prominently mentioned in the same breath, and Erap would back any combination of the three. Erap would probably prefer his movie buddie FPJ, and he certainly never saw his own lack of experience as a barrier. Actually, Erap had a lot more experience than FPJ as he had at least been a mayor and in Congress; FPJ has no experience at all. Oh well, at least he's not a womanizer or known heavy drinker like Estrada. Danding is a long-time kingmaker and is used to pulling strings in the background, while Lacson continues to elude conclusive investigation of some very serious charges while playing on his reputation as tough lawman.
In addition to the fact that these are more interesting characters than anybody the administration can field, there's also the reality that elections in the Philippines revolve around wheeling-dealing and controlling blocs of votes. Even if the current efforts of NAMFREL to ensure clean elections using modern computers are in place, the Iglesia ni Cristo church, Estrada's core masa base, and the Marcos loyalists can deliver the votes the opposition needs to get back in Malacanang.
Finally, I would be remiss not to at least refer to the international security situation and the fact that the United States remains on the verge of launching its seemingly inevitable invasion of Iraq. The Yanks are now returning for more war games. "Balance Piston" is starting this week at Clark Field, with 272 Americans and 221 Filipino troops to participate. The games are managed by the Presidential Commission on the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFACom), under the leadership of Usec Amado Valdez. There are at least 11 small-scale military exercises scheduled this year in Luzon alone, while the Bayanihan exercise starts down in Zamboanga in February. American Brigadier General Donald Wurster describes all this activity as "security assistance training," and there is lots of publicity about how culturally sensitive the whole thing is, what with the troops being trained in intercultural communications and such. (Interestingly, Wurster was scheduled to be in Zamboanga to dedicate a 25-room hospital that had been built by US troops last week, but Abu Sayyaf threats kept him away).
Of course the local opposition is quite vocal, as for example a group of Amerasians who are playing up the prostitution angle (an argument that is OK up to a point, although it ignores the fact that that particular industry is doing pretty well thanks to the Internet and the international sex tourist business; see Eva from Cebu and Left by the Ship for some earlier commentary on these issues). Bayan Muna party list Representative Crispin Beltran has been arguing that the Philippines should not be "a playground for US troops".
One reason the Yanks are so intent on maintaining regular war games here - and expanding those activities, as reflected in an apparent request to use 2,000 hectares of Filipino territory for serious military training - is that Japan, Thailand, and the American state of Hawaii have begun to restrict American troops' movements. Japan in particular has too many people on too small an island, so who can blame them for wanting to keep the GIs from blasting the smithereens out of an increasingly delicate ecosystem?
More broadly, maybe we should ask if the Philippines will be a staging area in the global war against terrorism? In addition to the obvious operations of Abu Sayyaf (which is anyway largely into kidnapping for ransom), intelligence officials see the Southern Philippines as a base of operations for Malaysia's Kumpulan Mujahedeen Malaysia (KMM) and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiah. And Zamboanga has had share of terrorist attacks, including last October when a bomb killed 13 people, including an American solider.
All of these events are playing off against the backdrop of a growing population of poor, disaffected, and (too often) hungry Muslims, a population who may suffer further when (not if?) the United States invades Iraq. The National Statistics Office recently released figures showing that 24 million people (28% of Filipinos) can't even provide for their own basic needs, with the situation substantially worst in the southern provinces. The bottom line for the Muslims is that the government in Manila is just another colonizing force.
Well, sorry if I started off the year with what seems a somewhat bleak assessment. Just free associating off the last few day's papers, and am well aware of the fact that one should never believe what's printed in the Manila press. I have my own inside sources, but am saving them for when I go underground. Anyway, one can hope that things will change and, being a perennial optimist, I'm counting on that happening just before apocalypse catches up with the Republic of the Philippines.
Anyway, 'nuff free association about current news in this first-in-2003 Pearl. The year of the Goat represents year #4 since I started the Pearl opus, and it has been somewhat of a long and winding road. Thanks to all of you who have bookmarked the column and who take the time to send appreciative, analytical, and (yes, even) critical notes.
In the meantime, Kung Hey Fat Choi, and may the New Year bring all of you success however you might define it.
