Bunkered down in Manila January 18th 2001 Like a lot of foreign businessmen in the Philippines, I am flabbergasted by the current come-to-pass. Talk about your basic worst case scenario! How in the world did things reach such an apparently apocalyptic state? How can those 11 Senators look themselves in the mirror in the morning (or any other time of day)? What will they tell their grandchildren? In earlier Pearls, I have tried hard to familiarize the reader with the history and culture of the Philippines (An Oversimplified History Lesson, Cronies and Booty Capitalism), with particular emphasis on how those things affect business and the economy. I have also commented on the administration (Filipino Political Theatre: Some Thoughts on Erap, Two Years with Erap), for the most part bending over backwards to be balanced and non-ideological. I've even gone out of my way to say nice things about my adopted country when all the local pundits were frothing at the mouth, whether in spirited anti-administration diatribes or bought-and-paid-for pro-Erap whitewashes (Clouds and Silver Linings). Well, folks, I have run out of rationalizations and positive thinking for the moment. This is a king hell mess and if the cookie crumbles the wrong way, we may end up with a perverted cross between Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Apocalypse Now. I'm not even sure what "the best we can hope for" is anymore. Sordid Reality The Philippines previous rock bottom, of course, occurred during the Marcos years, which featured martial law, wholesale plunder, reporters languishing in dungeons, and thousands of desperecidos. After People Power, few thought the country would ever see such depths of despair again. The Cory years were transitional and challenging, with investors staying away in droves and the international community taking a wait-and-see attitude. When General Ramos was elected, his neoliberal economic policies and pro-foreign investment philosophy seemed a tremendous breakthrough (see Globalization, Part 1 and Globalization, Part 2 for an amateur economist's analysis). By the end of his administration (1998), substantial progress had been made. But now, less than halfway through the six-year term of Erap, the whole house of cards is crashing down with a resounding thud. The brick-by-brick progress that occurred from 1987 to 1998 is being dismantled, the promise of the mid-1990's now replaced by hushed disbelief, mourning for the nation, and sinking feelings in the stomach. The demolition ball of rampant cronyism and self-centered greed is about to do this country in. The Masa Malacañang continues to mobilize pro-administration demonstrations by relying on the masses (masa), most of them paid anywhere from 200-400 pesos (about $4-8) to show up. From the beginning, of course, Erap relied on their support. His campaign slogan was Erap para sa Mahirap ("Erap for the poor"), something that has turned out to be a sad joke. The masa saw Erap as a welcome respite from all those years of domination by the élite classes of Philippine society. Presidents had always been elected from the elites, Marcos, Cory, and Ramos all being in that category. They spoke good English, had college educations, and moved in the highest circles of society and power. Marcos was a super-sharp if crooked lawyer, Cory was a descendant of hacenderos, and Ramos was an articulate West Point graduate. For most poor folks in the Philippines, there were few points of common reference other than centuries of subservience and exploitation and abstract admiration for what were perceived as social superiors. Erap, even though he grew up in a wealthy élite family, was not perceived as a member of the snobbish élite. A brawler in college at Ateneo, he became a well-known action hero in what were essentially Filipino B movies, generally portraying a heroic Robin Hood type coming triumphantly to the rescue of the less fortunate. His poor English, seeming straightforwardness, overt womanizing, and drinking with his barkadas were actually admired by a significant majority of the masa. He was seen as one of them, someone they could relate to. Erap was swept into office on the strength of those perceptions. Thus, there has been a certain emotional allegiance between the masa and Erap that has held steady throughout this crisis. Until now. I had an interesting conversation with a taxi driver the morning after the Senate fiasco. The radio was on and media pundits were interviewing Senator Drilon, I believe. I was a bit surprised when he started talking with me about the situation, but welcomed the opportunity given my usual reference points of academic/management encounters and Makati coffee shop jabber. At first he defended Erap, but I sensed a certain lack of enthusiasm. Without disagreeing with him overtly, and given the constraints of his broken English and my own rudimentary Taglish, I tried to go back-and-forth with him. His underlying feelings of disillusionment and betrayal didn't taken long to surface. At first, he griped about how the rallies were tying up traffic and hurting his income. But his disillusionment was deeper than that, and before the conversation ended he was speaking in amazement and gesticulating angrily about the billions and billions of pesos in the Jose Velarde accounts. I knew how much of a struggle it is for a taxi driver (or jeepney or tricycle driver) to make ends meet in Manila, and sympathized with his outrage. Erap's previous image as white knight for the poor is quickly giving way to widespread awareness of just what a gangster he is. The Military This is the scary one, and I'm not going to get into coffee shop tsismis or rehash the local media punditry. However, when I happened to sit beside four Army officers in a Makati Starbucks this morning, I tried hard to eavesdrop on their conversations. Who knows what their intensive whispering signaled? But there was a lot of ambient noise and I didn't want to appear too inquisitive, so I have no idea what they were saying. It did, however, make me nervous. Tabac (FVR) is getting increasingly restive and is less-and-less willing to go out of his way to appear above the fray. His increasingly high profile speaking engagements here and abroad have been getting more and more media play, and he would clearly relish the opportunity to rescue the country yet again. I believe FVR has just made another pronouncement giving Erap a 10-day deadline to step down. At some point, depending on what happens the next few days, something may simply have to be done. This morning's papers say the army and PNP (Philippine National Police) are still backing the administration 100%, per their constitutional duty. But given the rate at which things can metamorphose here (witness the other night's explosive and totally unanticipated meltdown), I for one am getting pretty worried. And so? No prognostications from me, none of that wishy washy on-the-one-hand/on-the-other-hand prosology I've proffered in earlier Pearls, and no going out on a limb to sound a positive note. All I know is that this mess is dead serious stuff and that the country's fate quite literally hangs in the balance. My own business is stagnant and the entire economy is crumbling. The top half of the hourglass is running way low on sand and whatever "window of opporunity" exists is closing rapidly. All we can do is hope and pray that somehow one or more of the Principals in Malacañang sees the light like Saul on the Road to Damascus. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it if I were you.

...from Clarence Henderson's Pearl of the Orient Seas

Clarence Henderson Henderson Consulting International Manila Philippines

Clarence has had over 20 years of consulting experience in New York, Los Angeles, and the Philippines. He brings to the forum many years of experience in the Philippines and his monthly column integrates the experience of working in the Philippines with business tips earned the hard way! You can learn more about Clarence by clicking on his photo.

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